#2 I'm pretty sure alarm bells were triggered by the intel community, and poo-pooed by the "establishment". I checked out the Google imagery over Russia. Most of it is from last summer, but even then you could tell that Russia was building up its strength in the area. Russia has a shortage of cash, but no less than FIVE Russian airfields near the Crimea were being upgraded. While some of the aircraft movements could have been to disperse aircraft from regular airfields undergoing upgrade, some of it was definitely equipment moving in from other places.
The Russians also used the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi as cover for moving additional weapons and troops into the area. MOST of the additional troops were located to the east of Ukraine, and around Krasnodar, near the Kerch Straits and the Sea of Azov. Most of those troops and equipment were in place as early as August of last year.
I'm not surprised that Russia would do whatever it took to retake the Crimean Peninsula. Sevastopol contains the largest Russian shipyard for surface fleet construction, and was where Russia's first aircraft carrier was built. One thing to watch closely: if the Russian grain crop is poor, Putin will take the rest of the Ukraine. That area isn't known as a breadbasket for no reason. It's the best farmland in all of Eastern Europe. |
