Since Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, it has been clear that a conflict between Moscow and the Crimean Tatars was only a matter of time. Arguably, the Crimean Tatars, with an estimated population of only 250,000 (Ukrainian Census, 2001), cannot play an important role in the decision-making processes in Crimea. The prevalence of ethnic Russians, outnumbering Crimean Tatars by a factor of four or five, renders the Tatars a powerless minority on the peninsula.
From the minute Moscow took over Crimea, it has been clear that the Crimean Tatars will have to make concessions. However, few Crimean Tatars realized that the changes would impact them so soon. After barring the leader of the Crimean Tatars, Mustafa Cemilev, from entering Russia (censor.net.ua, May 2), other bans against wider circles of Crimean Tatars followed. Several thousand followers of the Hizb ut-Tahrir movement, which is banned in Russia, hastily left Crimea (vesti.ru, April 28). The party is not banned in Ukraine, but in Russia it was designated as an extremist organization and officially outlawed by a court decision (cisatc.org, November 13, 2008). Entire families of the movementÂ’s members left Crimea, constituting a not insignificant portion of the general population of Crimean Tatars. It is also unlikely that any of the students from Crimea who are studying in the Middle East and Turkey will be able to return home (qha.com.ua, February 13).
The new situation will also have an impact on members of the Crimean TatarsÂ’ jamaat in Syria, which has become one of the most combat-ready units of the Syrian insurgent group Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar and is also well known in Crimea, thanks to its emir, Abdul-Karim Krymsky (YouTube, May 13). The leadership and members of the Crimean TatarsÂ’ representative body, the Majlis, which opposes the Russian occupation, have stayed outside of Crimea. Also, under pressure from Moscow, Crimean Tatars were coerced to not hold mass public events dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the deportation of their ethnic group to Central Asia in 1944 (mk.ru, May 17).