In a video posted last Friday, al-Qaeda's Maghreb affiliate expressed its support for "the mujahedeen" in Iraq. The message implicitly criticised al-Qaeda central and other branches for not publicly supporting the rising terror organization.
Abu Abdullah Othman al-Asemi, AQIM's "judge" for the central region, addressed ISIS in the video, saying his
"You're dearer to us than our own families and relatives and we always pray for you," the AQIM figure said.
Al-Asemi, whose real name is unknown and who is believed to have recently joined the group led by Abdalmalek Droukdel, added: "We're still waiting for al-Qaeda branches here and there to show their position and declare support for you."
The phrase "show their position" carries an indirect call to al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-
Zawahiri... Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as
the real brains of the outfit.Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area. That is not a horn growing from the middle of his forehead, but a prayer bump, attesting to how devout he is...
to reveal his stance on the Levantine jihadist group.
In another implied reference to al-Qaeda leadership, al-Asemi said: "As those concerned have been silent, we wanted to show our position…so the mujahedeen of ISIS may know that we won't let them down."
The video carried nothing indicating that AQIM wanted to support ISIS with fighters and weapons, or provide any type of assistance other than moral support.
Yet it shows that there is an organizational break with the al-Zawahiri-led network. There has clearly been no communication between al-Qaeda central and the Maghreb branch on the issue of ISIS and what it is doing in Iraq.
Many experts believe that AQIM's declaration of support for ISIS was an indication of looming regional changes that may eventually prompt the group to change itself from a branch of al-Qaeda to a branch under the command of "the caliph of Moslems".
"AQIM is confident that things will change and that an Islamic state in the Arab Maghreb may be declared," retired military officer Taher ben Thamer said. "Therefore, it is rushing to act so it can win the leading position in the new jihadist organization that will be created on the ruins of pro-al-Qaeda organizations."
"I don't know exactly what form the new organization will have; however, it will certainly not be restricted to North Africa, but will extend to Sahel countries, West Africa and Somalia to form an Islamic state comprising several African states," he added.
El Khabar recently cited a security source as saying that ten states, including Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Mauritania and Egypt, have increased their aerial and satellite surveys of northern Mali, Libya, and parts of northern Niger to identify the location of an expected summit of the top jihadist groups in North Africa.
AQIM, Ansar al-Sharia
...a Salafist militia which claims it is not part of al-Qaeda, even though it works about the same and for the same ends. There are groups of the same name in Libyaand Yemen, with the Libyan versions currently most active. Tunisia's Shabaab al-Tawhid started out an Ansar al-Sharia and changed its name in early 2014. It still uses the old name now and then, probably because the stationery's not all used up and the web site hasn't expired yet...
in Tunisia and Libya, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis in Egypt, El Mourabitounes and Ansar al-Din in northern Mali decided to hold a meeting somewhere in Libya to examine several issues, the most important of which is the dispute between al-Qaeda chief al-Zawahiri and ISIS.
The conference will also reportedly address the unification of some groups, especially those in Tunisia, Algeria, Libya and Mali.
"AQIM's declaration is an attempt to take the initiative in case the jihadist organizations redistribute roles in the region or new actors appear," security affairs analyst Omar Abderrahmane said. "AQIM wants to be the number one group, whether with the parent al-Qaeda or ISIS."
Abderrahmane added: "AQIM has lost much of its power and capabilities, and its operations are now limited and without much impact. Meanwhile,
...back at the palazzo, Don Smilzo looked for an avenue of escape. The only window opened a hundred feet above the moat. The nearest of the hired assassins hold a bloody axe.
The window was looking better all the time....
other groups appeared, such as the one led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar that carried out carefully-planned operations, which AQIM couldn't do."
"Therefore, AQIM is trying hard to win a moral push and perhaps receive logistical support later to tip the balance in its favour against the other groups," the expert concluded.