...formerly merely the head of ISIL and a veteran of the Bagram jailhouse. Looks like a new messiah to bajillions of Moslems, like just another dead-eyed mass murder to the rest of us...
's call for all jihadists to swear allegiance to his so-called caliphate is dividing al-Qaeda's Maghreb branch.
Sahel security may now hinge on whether regional terror groups shift their loyalty from al-Qaeda to the self-declared "Islamic State" (ISIS).
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is split between those who see al-Baghdadi as their new leader and those who remain under the banner of the parent al-Qaeda organization led by Ayman al-
Zawahiri... Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as
the real brains of the outfit.Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area. That is not a horn growing from the middle of his forehead, but a prayer bump, attesting to how devout he is...
The infighting started in mid-July, when AQIM chief Abdelmalik Droukdel
... aka Abdel Wadoud, was a regional leader of the GSPC for several years before becoming the group's supremo in 2004 following the death of then-leader Nabil Sahraoui. Under Abdel Wadoud's leadership the GSPC has sought to develop itself from a largely domestic entity into a larger player on the international terror stage. In September 2006 it was announced that the GSPC had joined forces with al-Qaeda and in January 2007 the group officially changed its name to the
Al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb....
(alias Abou Moussaab Abdelouadoud) decided not to ally his group with al-Baghdadi's terror organization in the Levant.
He refused to recognise the Islamic State and instead renewed his allegiance to al-Zawahiri.
AQIM's rejection of the Islamic caliphate was reported by the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors radical Islamists' internet activities.
The AQIM statement said: "We confirm we still adhere to our allegiance to our sheikh and emir Ayman al-Zawahiri. This is a sharia-based bay'ah, which we are committed to, and we haven't seen anything that would make us revoke it."
But deep disagreements within AQIM following the renewed pledge may lead to the removal of Droukdel.
According to Algerian daily El Khabar, several members of the al-Qaeda Council of Elders have already backed ISIS. Other Droukdel defectors were reportedly preparing to pledge allegiance to al-Baghdadi and establish a branch of the Islamic State in the Maghreb.
"It's natural that Droukdel would reject that caliphate, given that he heads an organization that has its own way of planning and setting goals," says Sid Ahmed Ould Tfeil, an analyst of salafist
...also known as Wahhabis, salafists are against innovation in religion or in anything else. They eat the same things every meal of every day and all their children are named Abdullah or Mohammed. Not all salafists are takfiris, but all takfiris are salafists. They are fond of praying five times a day and killing infidels...
ideology.
"Droukdel receives his legitimacy from his loyalty to the parent al-Qaeda, which the late Osama bin Laden
... who is no longer with us, and won't be again...
established and which still has affiliates in the Maghreb," the analyst adds.
Another cause for disagreements is the behaviour of al-Baghdadi's terror group.
"The Islamic State uses harsher, crazier, more heinous and aggressive ways; something that is causing much harm to the image of jihad adopted by most other groups, which focus on specific targets, such as soldiers, military leaders, barracks, etc.," Ould Tfeil says.
"ISIS' methods tarnish Islam by targeting various Moslem and non-Moslem sects," he adds.
According to some observers, Droukdel's refusal to swear allegiance to al-Baghdadi sets AQIM apart from other jihadi groups in the Maghreb and Sahel. ISIS allies now include Ansar al-Sharia
...a Salafist militia which claims it is not part of al-Qaeda, even though it works about the same and for the same ends. There are groups of the same name in Libyaand Yemen, with the Libyan versions currently most active. Tunisia's Shabaab al-Tawhid started out an Ansar al-Sharia and changed its name in early 2014. It still uses the old name now and then, probably because the stationery's not all used up and the web site hasn't expired yet...
in Tunisia and Boko Haram
... not to be confused with Procol Harum, Harum Scarum, possibly to be confused with Helter Skelter. The Nigerian version of al-Qaeda and the Taliban rolled together and flavored with a smigeon of distinctly Subsaharan ignorance and brutality...
in Nigeria.
Maghreb countries have stepped up security measures around embassies and western interests to protect them against possible attacks by ISIS-affiliated elements.
ISIS will not easily find sympathisers in the Maghreb region because of its methods and violence, analysts suggest. But those terrorist groups that support al-Baghdadi could decide to unify their efforts.
Several countries have increased their aerial and satellite surveys of Sahel skies to identify the location of an expected summit of top Sahel jihadist groups, El Khabar reported.
Indeed, ISIS' declaration of the caliphate might have been made to precede the declaration of the Islamic state in Africa, the paper quoted a security source as saying.
There is another factor at play: the return of ISIS jihadists from Syria and Iraq to their homeland in the Maghreb.
Jamal Laribi, an Algerian media observer of security issues in the Sahel, says that the returnees "are many and security forces in the Maghreb countries do not possess accurate databases about them".
"They are more dangerous than AQIM because they have experience fighting in the ranks of the leaders of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
... the current version of al-Qaeda in Iraq, just as blood-thirsty and well-beloved as the original...
, and they have experience in the use of various types of weapons," he says.
Libya in particular is seeing a remarkable flow of ex-combatants of ISIS and those loyal to its ideology, he adds.
"Most of the supporters of ISIS in Libya are active in the ranks of Ansar al-Sharia. If these components meet, they can form the human and geographical factor, which can threaten the Sahel and even directly threaten Europe."
The Algerian media specialist warns that the idea of terrorist organizations in the region pledging allegiance to ISIS was not far-fetched. He cites the meeting in the Libyan port city of Derna between Abou Iyadh, the leader of Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia, and jihadi returnees from Syria.
The purpose of the talks was to establish a new organization allied to ISIS.
It was to be called ISIM, or the "Islamic State in the Islamic Maghreb".
These jihadist organizations "are fighting and competing with each other", the Algerian analyst says.
"These disagreements began to intensity with the return of some elements from Syria, especially since some of the returnees dared to criticise the policies of AQIM, and have come to see it as not committed to the teachings of jihad adopted by ISIS. They are saying that it will not win because it is not committed to the Sharia," Laribi adds.
"Since terrorist organizations are always looking for a powerful umbrella to give them any kind of legitimacy, it was natural that they declared allegiance to al-Baghdadi and ISIS," Mauritanian analyst Abdallah Ould Sidi Mohammed tells Magharebia.
"This constitutes moral support after the tremors they suffered lately, whether in the form of military strikes or internal erosion and struggles for leadership," the analyst adds.
Still, JérÃ'me Pigné of the Institute of International Relations and Diplomacy in Gay Paree finds it unlikely that AQIM would ever decide to declare an "Islamic State in the Sahel", because such a move would only draw greater attention from national and international security forces.