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| The Grand Turk |
| Patrick Cockburn: Whose side is Turkey on ? |
| 2014-11-02 |
| A lengthy but insightful essay. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #8 since, oh, the US was denied entry for the infantry division back before OIF The Turks had help from our State Department on that one. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2014-11-02 20:33 |
| #7 (how to trigger a Turkish collapse was part of the problem) Well, with Erdogan around, they're halfway there. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-11-02 17:23 |
| #6 Russia has always wanted the Dardanelles. Generations old. Even had a wargamed scenario about it in a WW3 1980's setting (how to trigger a Turkish collapse was part of the problem) |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-11-02 15:55 |
| #5 Let me spin a yarn, open to critique: Turkey is on Erdy's side, which is on the Muslim Brotherhood's side. The plan was a MoBro collection of territory from Libya to Turkey with overtures of a Mediterranian Union Pact. That plan de-railed with the oust of Morsi. Erdy, with Crimea, has repositioned himself as a toll booth for West/Russian trade routes as well as ISJV/Assad trade routes, with options to solve his Kurdish problem. Erdy's problem is that he lost Egypt to a popular uprising and surprisingly effective Sisi, a US ally (Morsi supporter, meeting where marines were called in for umprellas) unwilling to commit as well as their own military unwilling or unable to throw a punch at Assad without NATO backup, with the idea of a MoBro/USA compliant successor (that is questionable as per current local conditions, they would have to align nominally with ISJV). So Erdy allows ISJV units to create an underground railroad while also collecting tolls from NATO, while rolling dice neither establish hardoned trade corridors. I'd wager Turkey can go the way of Syria, but with a NATO safety net for what its worth. The benefit would be Kurdistan, could also mean a realignment with Russia to shut down the railroad (though stomping weasels is not a bad thing) but would compromise the Hellespont and close the Black Sea. Even if they did, they would never give up their NATO membership - have to be evicted, which means war, which means difficult assistance to the Kurds. The current Obama/US administration is openly hostile to both Egypt and Israel, and in regards Syria by calling out Assad at the UN talkabout. This is a losing strategy for Turkey, but Erdy is in charge at the moment. Unless the people or military of Turkey step up, which the people had somewhat tried and the military leadership had been replaced, Erdy will end up sinking that country, slighting the Kurds and letting insurgents establish a network, and by playing NATO/Russia they will at least get one but will not get either. Stupid Erdagon. Just stupid. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2014-11-02 12:21 |
| #4 Been saying these things for a while - since, oh, the US was denied entry for the infantry division back before OIF. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-11-02 10:54 |
| #3 Turkey is on Turkey's side. You think you got crappy neighbors... |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2014-11-02 09:25 |
| #2 Islamic State/jihadis. |
| Posted by: Snavick Ulusoger9346 2014-11-02 09:03 |
| #1 Whose side is obama on? |
| Posted by: airandee 2014-11-02 06:37 |