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| Iraq |
| The Iraqi campaign to retake Ramadi from ISIS is a looming disaster |
| 2015-05-31 |
| [Bus Insider] The Iraqi Army and its Shia militia allies are gearing up for one of the defining campaigns in the war against ISIS. Troops are gathering outside of Ramadi, the city located 80 miles from Baghdad that ISIS took on May 17th. Ramadi is majority Sunni and could serve as an ISIS foothold for an assault on the greater Baghdad area. A successful campaign to retake the city could send ISIS into retreat. But failure would only solidify the jihadists' hold over a sizable population center at the doorstop of the Iraqi capital. And the attempt to retake Ramadi looks like yet another disaster in waiting. As former US Army intelligence officer Michael Pregent explained to Business Insider, taking back Ramadi is beyond the capabilities of a diminished Iraqi army and its partners, which include Iranian-backed Shia militia groups like Kataib Hezbollah and the Badr Group. Nevertheless, The Washington Post reports that Iran-backed militias, under the umbrella of popular mobilization units, have already taken the lead. Meanwhile, Iranian commanders are fighting on the front lines and the Pentagon may give them air support. "We wish the army could be at the same level as the [popular mobilization units]," a Kataib Hezbollah fighter told the Post near Ramadi. "In reality, they are much weaker." The main problem is that an enormous deployment of soldiers and Shia militants -- and then US air strikes -- were required to retake Tikrit, a much smaller majority-Sunni town that had been nearly depopulated during the fighting, back in March. And "Ramadi's different," says Pregent. "It has a civilian population and it's far harder to bomb there. The targets are harder to find and ISIS is embedded in the Sunni population ... It took 30,000 fighters to take Tikrit, and they couldn't take the city from 1,000 ISIS fighters in an area with no civilian population until the US started bombing everything." |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #5 battle to take Tikrit took 3 months and probably resulted in about 1,000 dead on the Iraq govt side (including militia) including several Iranian big shots - probably a similar number of ISIS or ISIS affiliated men died as well |
| Posted by: lord garth 2015-05-31 22:18 |
| #4 This could go on for awhile if the Iraq-Iran War is any indication; it lasted 8 years (1980-1988). |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2015-05-31 18:04 |
| #3 Iranian commanders are fighting on the front lines and the Pentagon may give them air support. A very curious arrangement, to say the least. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2015-05-31 15:47 |
| #2 Iraqi Army (Iranian?) forces may not be too concerned about collateral damage in Ramadi. A campaign might consist of cutting off retreat/re-supply from the west, then seeing how many artillery rounds per hour they can hit the city with. Might even ask for an Arc Light strike from us? |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2015-05-31 15:44 |
| #1 Who's setting the ROE for this operation? I've never mistaken the Iranians for people concerned about civilian casualties. If Champ lets his BFF mullah friends run things.................................. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2015-05-31 15:15 |