Historically, when North Korea has poked South Korea, it has done so to either stoke national pride or get Beijing’s attention. That looks likely to have been the case this time. Chinese and DPRK officials have likely been holding talks, primarily in the border region of Liaoning Province, as they did while I was in the region in the mid-2000s. Much of the discussion probably involved China urging restraint between North and South Korea. In the event of a war between the Koreas, millions of North Koreans will likely flee to China, so it is in China’s best interest to help secure peace on the peninsula.
But the real meat of the discussion likely concerned what North Korea wants — not necessarily from its southern adversary, but from China. North Korea relies on China for food, arms and energy. And China is much more inclined to use carrots rather than sticks to gain cooperation from North Korea.
The most recent provocation likely had its roots in cash and food shortages or, less likely, a snub from Beijing. While the incident occurred in the DMZ, it likely had far more to do with DPRK-China relations than relations between the two Koreas. |