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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
| Pournelle: Nuclear deterrence in the age of the deal |
| 2015-09-06 |
| I have been musing on Israeli options now that President Obama's deal has become assured and the Congress can do nothing about it. The "deal" (I used to teach Constitutional Law and I knew that treaties ratified by 2/3 vote of the Senate were the supreme law of the land, but I never heard of a deal not rejected by 60% of the Senate was) assures us that Iran will have at least a small force of nuclear weapons whenever whoever is the current Supreme Leader decides to make the effort. We will not have evidence that will convince those enamored of the deal for quite a bit after the fact, although intelligence operatives will know earlier. No one can predict who will be the Ayatollah selected to be the Supreme Leader to follow this one, but he -- it will be a he -- will be an Ayatollah and Koran scholar. Perhaps he will find an interpretation of the Koran that allows an Israel not subjected to dhimmitude to exist as a truce for his lifetime; that decision will be easier for him if Israel has a very survivable second strike force, 500 psi silos far enough apart that it takes at least one warhead (delivered by missile or by ox cart) to be sure of taking out the silo...deterrence is an event that takes place in the mind of the enemy commander (just as surprise is an event that takes place in the mind of your commander). I was asked specific questions in another conference; The answers supplement what I said above. 1. What are the chances Israel will attack Iran's nuclear sites to prevent them from producing an atomic weapon? Low and decreasing. ... 2. If the attack occurs, will Israel use nukes as a first strike to ensure the deep underground facilities are destroyed? Or as a later strike, perhaps? See above. Zero probability without political preparation, which would not be concealable.. 3. If Israel does attack Iran, will Israel survive the Iranian retaliation as a nation, if Iranian missiles, Hamas, and Hezbollah go all-out? Will the Iron Dome protect them? Possibly, but it is not sufficient to protect Israel from nuclear attack without warning (ox cart delivery of attacks on Iron Dome and IDF air assets, as a possibility). Israel needs a survivable retaliatory deterrent force. She does not have one now. 4. If the attack occurs, when do you think it will happen -- before or after next year's Election Day? After, and by then it will be too late to be non-nuclear, and will require USAF air superiority force assistance ; so likely zero probability. 5. What do you see as the fallout -- radioactive and/or geopolitical -- from such an attack? Horrible, but improbable. 6. Will the USA militarily intervene to protect Iran from Israel, i.e., shoot down Israeli planes or missiles? It won't happen, but giving such orders would damn near destroy the Air Force and Navy. A lot of senior officers would resign... ... given the plain language of the Koran that there can be only truce, not peace outside the house of Islam, Israel needs a secure deterrent, and has only a brief time to get to building it. Design is not easy, and it will be expensive. |
| Posted by:Anguper Hupomosing9418 |
| #1 6. Will the USA militarily intervene to protect Iran from Israel, i.e., shoot down Israeli planes or missiles? Couldn't Russia militarily intervene against Israel to protect Iran? Obama might share intelligence on Israel with the Russians and warn them of an imminent attack on Iran without directly involving the US military. Is this the actual purpose of the Russian air base in Syria? |
| Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 2015-09-06 18:52 |