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| The Grand Turk |
| 17 second response suggests the Turks were waiting to shoot down a Russian aircraft |
| 2015-11-27 |
| Analysis by the Grauniad. Even if Turkey is right that a Russian fighter jet strayed into its airspace, the plane was within Ankara’s borders for just 17 seconds before being attacked – and was making no hostile moves against the Turks. Airspace incursions, granted usually in less politically tense contexts, happen all the time, and generally you’d expect warning shots to be fired and then attempts to force the intruder to leave or to land. That the Turks shot down the jet and did so within 17 seconds – with the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, saying he gave the order to fire himself – suggests very strongly they were waiting for a Russian plane to come into or close enough to Turkish airspace with the aim of delivering a rather pyrotechnic message. Moscow may have been foolish to let its planes stray so close to the border – doubly so if its rules of engagement allowed pilots to dip into Turkish airspace when it was operationally useful (as is likely). But Turkey’s response went way beyond the usual practice. Yet no one wants this conflict to escalate, and both Ankara and Moscow are working to that end. Presumably Erdogan feels satisfied the point has been made, and presumably Moscow, while no doubt harboring its grudges, is aware it has a great deal of lost diplomatic ground to make up and wants to be able to strike a deal with the west over Syria and Ukraine. Nato is aware that Turkey is an ally, but is not piling in to increase the tension; Russia knows that while it may have a certain moral authority in this incident, but if it turns to military pressure then Nato must back its maverick ally. There are striking similarities between Erdogan’s Turkey and Putin’s Russia, not least their ability and propensity to move conflicts into the covert arena. While Russia’s intervention in Syria may have cynical intent, the Turks are acting in support of their national interests in Syria with equal ruthlessness. Ankara is often guilty of neglecting attacks on Isis and hitting the Kurds (who are in so many ways the most effective force against the jihadists) instead, smuggling weapons in the guise of humanitarian convoys (something we saw the Russians doing in Ukraine), and being willing to support groups which are often jihadist in their own terms. Turkish military intelligence organisation (MIT) is every bit as cynically opportunist as the Russian military spy agency (GRU), and Erdogan every bit as erratic, brutal and ambitious as Putin. While the overt clashes may be headed off by the usual machinery of diplomacy, both countries – with large, extensive, secretive and brutal intelligence apparatuses and a history of working with both gangsters and terrorists – may well instead simply transfer these tensions to the covert arena. In Syria itself, the Russians are likely to put greater emphasis on attacking those groups under Ankara’s patronage. A strike on a Turkish aid convoy may be the first manifestation of this. Meanwhile, the Turks will presumably arm and encourage those groups most able to give the Russians a bloody nose. In this way, what wasn’t really a proxy war before is likely to become one. Meanwhile, Moscow may put greater emphasis on countering Turkey’s efforts to establish regional influence (Azerbaijan is an obvious place of contention) and could support problematic non-state actors inside Turkey, from Kurds to criminals (at least, those criminals not already tied to the Turkish state). This is a conflict that Ankara triggered and while it is being managed it is not going to go away. Nor is it just going to become another chapter in the histories of Russo-Ottoman rivalry. Expect to see this play out in snide, deniable, but nonetheless bitter actions for months to come. |
| Posted by:Pappy |
| #14 10 alleged Turkish warnings in 17 seconds - on CNN it took an average of 5-6 seconds just to read or listen to one. NO WONDER RUSSIAN TOP EGG GENERALS + NATIONALIST ZHIRINOSKY DON'T BELIEVE IT! Ole' ZHIRI is demanding that Vlad take some sort of major milaction agz Turkey. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2015-11-27 20:03 |
| #13 I'm sure Spetznaz who'll caught up to this particular wolf, will be more than happy to discuss legal ramifications with him, Rambler. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2015-11-27 16:26 |
| #12 Steve, ISIS's excuse is probably that they didn't sign the Geneva Conventions. Of course, that would mean they aren't really entitled to the Geneva Convention's protections... |
| Posted by: Rambler in Virginia 2015-11-27 16:18 |
| #11 A Syrian rebel commander who boasted of killing a Russian pilot Methinks somebody just bought himself a ticket. For those of you who follow soccer and the Geneva Conventions: Article 42 - Occupants of aircraft 1. No person parachuting from an aircraft in distress shall be made the object of attack during his descent. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2015-11-27 15:09 |
| #10 It gets deeper: A Syrian rebel commander who boasted of killing a Russian pilot after Turkey downed Russian jet on Tuesday appeared to be Turkish ultranationalist and a son of former mayor in one of Turkish provinces. He also turned out to be the member of The Grey Wolves ultranationalist group, members of which have carried out scores of political murders since 1970s. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2015-11-27 13:52 |
| #9 He bent Hussein's ears in the Garden (He'd flown on a carpet to bargain): "Please tell Rootenputin To stop all that shootin'... And am I too late for a pardon?" |
| Posted by: Zenobia Floger6220 2015-11-27 12:55 |
| #8 Even the Assad rump state buys oil from ISIS, because the price is so much lower. That argument was part of the support for the claim that Assad supported ISIS in the early, so as to have a bugabear to present to those trying to overthrow him. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2015-11-27 12:43 |
| #7 Turkey = ISIS. All you have to do is follow the oil tanker trucks. It's kinda funny how the MSM don't ask about it. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2015-11-27 12:34 |
| #6 Al, The fallacy in your post is that Turkey is NOT neutral in this conflict. They are active participants and up to their eyeballs in support of the groups the Russians are bombing. Nothing coincidental or poorly coordinated about it. If Russia had given Turkey flight plan info, the Turks would have used it for firing solutions to pot a Russian plane or three. Erdogan tried to deliver a message shooting down the Sukhoi, but he really doesn't understand Putin. OR the consequences of poking the bear. |
| Posted by: Bill Clinton 2015-11-27 11:52 |
| #5 Let me rephrase my comments by redacting "extremists" from my previous post. There is nothing extreme (in their eyes) about their behavior and it should not be in ours. That is the way they are, much as the scorpion and the frog. |
| Posted by: Bill Clinton 2015-11-27 11:48 |
| #4 This article ignores what had been going on beforehand. Turkey had been warning Russia for some time about sending bombers too close to the border. Whenever war occurs in a neighboring country, neutrals get concerned (with good reason) that their citizens will be bombed by accident. It is standard procedure to have CAPs flying along the border to make bombers don't stray into neutral airspace. Russia had penetrated Turkish airspace before, so Turkey was waiting for them. In addition, Turkey, NATO and Obama had all been trying to get Russia to coordinate its airstrike with the coalition or divide Syrian airspace into sectors for air control. Russia had ignored these requests. This could have been avoided with a little coordination by Russia. Al |
| Posted by: frozen al 2015-11-27 11:48 |
| #3 The biggest difference between Russia and Turkey is that Russia has spent the last thirty years dealing with Moslem extremists in various parts of the former Soviet Union and harbors no illusions about what they are. The Turks on the other hand are rapidly becoming Moslem extremists and suppliers of men, weapons, and money to ISIS. I hate it when some one tries to sort of suggest a moral equivalency between two sides of a conflict. In this case, there is none. |
| Posted by: Bill Clinton 2015-11-27 11:43 |
| #2 Meet The Man Who Funds ISIS: Bilal Erdogan, The Son Of Turkey's President As it's ZH I decided not to post as an article. Turkey = ISIS. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2015-11-27 05:53 |
| #1 Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, saying he gave the order to fire himself Whom the Gods wish to destroy... |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2015-11-27 04:04 |