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Arabia
Saudi Arabia will struggle to kick its addiction to oil
2016-04-28
[IN.REUTERS] "King Abdulaziz and the men who worked with him for the establishment of the state did not depend on oil and they established the kingdom without oil, and they ran this state without oil, and they lived in this state without oil," Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an televised interview on Monday.

The deputy crown prince criticized the kingdom's subsequent "addiction" to oil which has "disrupted the development of many sectors in the past years" implying this was a relatively recent problem.

The prince claimed his national transformation program would enable the kingdom to "live without oil" as early as 2020 ("Transcript of Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Interview", Al Arabiya, April 25).

But if modern Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face...
was founded by conquest and the skilful statesmanship of Abdulaziz, it has been held together by the revenue from oil, even more than conservative religion.

Distribution of oil revenue to client groups has formed the foundation of the state from its earliest years and shaped the contours of the economy and society.

Sharing oil wealth in exchange for popular submission to absolute monarchical rule has always been central to the social contract between the ruling Al Saud and the kingdom's population.

Transforming that contract so that it does not center on oil is an enormously ambitious undertaking fraught with considerable risks and with an uncertain chance of success.
Posted by:Fred

#6  And only your fleas will miss you.

I'm picturing a remake of Ozymandias with a cracked and weathered tombstone in a trackless desert. The inscription reads, "Where'd they all go? -- the fleas"
Posted by: SteveS   2016-04-28 14:52  

#5  Good luck with that. Once oil isn't needed as much (go fusion and fuel cells!) and we can get it from our own countries, you and your kind are doomed. Your societies will collapse and you will destroy and eat your own.

And only your fleas will miss you.
Posted by: DarthVader   2016-04-28 11:50  

#4  Like a drug pusher that realized the cartels are taking over the streets. Time to quit. Hope they rot in hell.
Posted by: 49 pan   2016-04-28 10:42  

#3  They could always sell sand
Posted by: chris   2016-04-28 07:57  

#2  Geopolitics abhors a vacuum.

Saudi isn't ethnoreligiously diverse like Syria, Iraq and Yemen. I don't see it sliding into a chaotic civil war like the aforementioned.

A Palace Coup is a definitely possibility, which may end up with a military strongman in charge. Which is the default Arab model of government.
Posted by: phil_b   2016-04-28 07:05  

#1  Theprince claimed his national transformation program would enable the kingdom to "live without oil" as early as 2020

....Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahaha - No.

The fact that they're even talking about this means they are having a Belshazzar's Feast moment over there. Their entire social contract - and even religious dicatorships have 'em - is built on vast endless amounts of oil money, a guaranteed yearly income, and huge numbers of Third Country Nationals (TCNs) to do all the icky everyday work that Saudi males firmly believe they are above. You take any of that out of the equation, and the Saudi people (effectively just the men) are going to be pi$$ed. I think that the 'plan' actually involves setting things up so the al-Sauds can bail someplace safe and far away, and it's going to take till 2020.

And when it comes unglued, it will be hard, fast, and 'unexpected'.

Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski   2016-04-28 05:15  

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