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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Who are Syria's opposition alliances?
2017-10-11
[Al Jazeera] Hay'et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
HTS is Jabhat al-Nusra
...formally Jabhat an-Nusrah li-Ahli al-Sham (Support Front for the People of the Levant), also known as al-Qaeda in the Levant. They aim to establish a pan-Arab caliphate. Not the same one as the Islamic State, though .. ...
's successor and comprises some of the more powerful gangs operating in Idlib province.

After 2015, agreements between regime and opposition forces led to the forced displacement of fighters and many civilians from conflict zones, pushing them into Idlib. The situation has created intense competition and infighting, along with a dizzying number of alliances and counter-alliances among the various gangs.

HTS emerged out of this competition as one of the stronger groups in Idlib. In early October, a Ottoman Turkish-led military campaign began against HTS in Idlib in order to establish a de-escalation zone. The campaign involved Ottoman Turkish aerial bombardment to support Free Syrian Army
... the more palatable version of the Syrian insurgency, heavily influenced by the Moslem Brüderbund...
(FSA) advances against HTS.

This has been a common pattern in recent years in Syria: A ground force relies on external intervention to support its territorial advances. American support allowed the SDF to advance on ISIS; Russian support was provided to regime-aligned forces in recapturing Homs, Hama, Aleppo and other areas; and now Ottoman Turkish support is being provided to the FSA.

It is unlikely that HTS will survive in its current form in the aftermath of the campaign, but as in previous years, it will likely splinter and reappear in various forms.

The Free Syrian Army (FSA)
The Free Syrian Army is the army that never was one.
Since the outset of the conflict, the FSA has been a conglomeration of armed brigades fighting under a loose umbrella in which central coordination and military planning never existed. FSA brigades have shifted alliances to other armed opposition groups, as well as re-defecting to the Syrian army.

There is thus virtually no ideological, political or military coherence, but the FSA persists as a loose organizational mechanism for gangs.

In 2016, the FSA was mobilised against SDF forces to prevent the contiguity of Kurdish territory along The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire....
's southern border in Operation Euphrates Shield. Then, as now, the FSA was supported by the Ottoman Turkish military through logistics, aerial support and intelligence.

Without this military support, the FSA is simply incapable of overtaking groups such as HTS or the SDF.

The Unified National Army (UNA)
The Unified National Army was created in mid-2017 with the aim of bringing together gangs of various ideological and political backgrounds. Many of these groups are dispersed throughout Syrian territory in areas where there is still active fighting, such as the south, Ghouta and northern areas around Aleppo and Idlib.


The UNA is the latest in a long line of attempts to unify the Syrian armed opposition and it is unlikely that its fate will be any different from the others.

The main group within the UNA is Ahrar al-Sham
...a Syria jihadi group made up of Islamists and salafists, not that there's that much difference, formed into a brigade. They make up the main element of the Islamic Front but they don't profess adoration of al-Qaeda and they've been fighting (mainly for survival) against the Islamic State. Their leadership was wiped out at a single blow by a suicide kaboom at a crowded basement meeting in September, 2014...
, one of the few Islamist brigades to have persisted under this banner throughout the long course of the conflict. Brigades associated with the UNA have clashed regularly with the SDF, ISIS and HTS over territory, and have mostly been in military retreat since the Russian intervention.

While some of the southern factions retain control over some territory, their increasing abandonment by Jordanian authorities has limited their capacity and access to resources. Thus, despite having the appearance of a national character with brigades from all over the country pledging support for the project, the UNA has not solved the problems of coordination and material resources that have plagued previous attempts at unifying Syria's gangs.
Posted by:Fred

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