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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Totten: Is Iran's Regime About to Fall? |
| 2018-01-05 |
| Posted by:newc |
| #8 @Frozen Al One of the first Iranian cities to protest was Qoms (12/28/17). Imagine Texans protesting the federal gov't/Trump. Qoms (center of shiite islamic studies) in rebellion is an indicator that this is definitely not a repeat of 2009. It goes much deeper this time, and much more rural. The below was cribbed from an Arabian News site. Twenty points to explain the current Iranian protests: 1 On Tuesday, December 19, the Iranian government announced a new austerity plan. 2 The plan imposed a 50% increase in the price of fuel. 3 The government decided to cancel the monetary support of more than 34 million people. 4 Economists close to President Hassan Rouhani warned that the plan would lead to a societal explosion. 5 Hassan Rouhani snubbed the advice and decided to proceed with the austerity plan. Demonstrations began with economic demands, but quickly turned political. 6 In this same austerity plan, the government decided to increase the budget for military armament. 7 Most of the military armament budget goes to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 8 The IRGC operates on foreign lands, supporting the Houthi militia in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Unit in Iraq and supporting the Assad regime in Syria. 9 The number of poverty-stricken individuals under the lifting of subsidies rose from 20 million to 54 million. 10 On Wednesday, December 27, citizens went out on a limited demonstration to demand that the government backtrack on the austerity plans. 11 The demonstration was held in the city of Mashhad, the capital of Khorasan Rizvi province, and security forces treated the protesters with excessive violence. 12 On Thursday morning, thousands of citizens decided to go out in mass demonstrations against the regime in support of the protesters (Qom). 13 Demonstrations began with economic demands such as the restoration of monetary support and the lifting of fuel subsidies. 14 University students and other middle classes joined the demonstrations. 15 Their demands have evolved into political anger related to Iran’s foreign policy. 16 Demonstrators called on the regime to stop supporting terrorist groups abroad and said clearly in the slogans they chanted “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon … my soul is searching for the redemption of Iran.” 17 The massive demonstrations from Khorasan province extended to other provinces including Hamdan, Kermanshah and Tehran. 18 Security forces violently treated demonstrators and tried to disperse them with tear gas and arrested hundreds of them. 19 The clerics in Mashhad specifically called for the suppression of demonstrations by all means. 20 The geographical scope of the demonstrations is expected to expand to include provinces such as Sistan, Baluchistan and Persia, with its capital, Shiraz and Isfahan, which also witnessed massive demonstrations at the weekend (which it has). Inshallah |
| Posted by: mossomo 2018-01-05 17:00 |
| #7 Michael Ledeen has a different take on the Iranian protests. The current protests started with farmers in a desert city. Their irrigation channels had gone dry due to massive incompetence by the government. The protests spread to other workers and farmers facing hard times across the nation. Only later did the students in Teheran join in. This makes this revolt more dangerous than the one in 2009. Al |
| Posted by: Frozen Al 2018-01-05 13:27 |
| #6 Iran news on live map in English - Iran Protests IranProtests News- iran.liveuamap.com |
| Posted by: newc 2018-01-05 12:30 |
| #5 I have a good feeling about Iran's fall. They have a large number of non-zealots keeping their heads down combined with a generation that went through the meat-grinder of the Iran-Iraq war combined with endless foreign adventures. They also got a good look at how effective American forces can be when motivated. I wouldn't be surprised to see units stand down rather than fire on the people and if that happens its over. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2018-01-05 11:34 |
| #4 A factor in Iran is the significant different factions which run the country while not getting along with each other. The military vs the Republican Guard. The high mullahs vs the lower mullahs. The republican guard that controls various business vs the republican guard that is underpaid and resents the former. every country's story is different and Iran is much different from, say Algeria's situation in 2010 or Romania's in 1989. |
| Posted by: lord garth 2018-01-05 09:24 |
| #3 Don't bother turning to the intelligence community for answers, they've been too busy monitoring Republicans. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2018-01-05 08:48 |
| #2 - See: North Korea. Everyone talks. No one does anything. The regime continues. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2018-01-05 07:16 |
| #1 No. But it is an interesting dynamic if you consider what happen to Fascist Italy. Mussolini was involved in a series of costly foreign adventures that soaked up all of the excess capital that could have been used on modernizing home infrastructure and the Italian armed forces. At some point will Iran just implode under stress? |
| Posted by: magpie 2018-01-05 02:07 |