[TheJamestownFoundation] The Nigerian military faces a classic counter-insurgency dilemma akin to what U.S. and Afghan forces face in Afghanistan — the insurgents have high maneuverability in the countryside; are able to resource themselves or retreat across the border into neighboring countries; and the population is either indifferent or has been cowed into submission. ISWAP | (Islamic State in the West Africa Province) |
Behind the scenes of the ground battles in northeastern Nigeria, ISWAP, Boko Haram and Ansaru are also engaged in a battle for supremacy of the jihadist movement and narrative in Nigeria. These three factions have been at odds since two key events in February 2015 and August 2016. First, in February 2015, a shura was held where Ansaru opted to remain separate from ISWAP, while the other insurgents, including some defectors from Ansaru, joined the group (jihadology.net, February 10, 2015). Then, in August 2016, ISWAP itself split, with Shekau being deposed from the leadership by Islamic State (IS). He returned to lead Boko Haram, while Abu Musab al-Barnawi became leader of ISWAP (jihadology.net, August 3, 2016).
Ansaru is now mostly operationally dormant, while ISWAP and Boko Haram sometimes clash in overlapping territories. Militants and civilians generally both prefer ISWAP under al-Barnawi. Boko Haram leader Shekau is known to attack pretty much anyone who resists joining his caliphate, which functions as his fiefdom around Sambisa Forest. That has included his own top commanders if he perceives they are disloyal, whether or not there is evidence to prove that disloyalty (vanguardngr.com, January 28).