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Africa North
Non-territorial terrorism: Implications for Egypt
2018-01-25
[AlAhram] The year 2017 marked significant changes in the pattern of terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa. This change rests primarily on the territories lost by terrorist entities, the Islamic State (IS) group and its regional affiliates mainly, because of organised military actions by states or international military coalitions.

Last year witnessed several celebrations of victory over IS in both Iraq and Libya, where most land under IS control was retaken by governments. In Syria, the geographical presence of IS was significantly reduced after forcing IS out of Raqqa and Deir Al-Zor.

The Egyptian Armed Forces expanded its counter-terrorism military operations in Northern Sinai during 2017, which led to the termination of any significant territorial control for terrorist entities.
Discussion of things we know snipped, leading to:
Those pattern changes have various implications on Egypt. The threat coming from the Egyptian-Libyan border will be intensified since Libya is one of the potential hubs for IS relocation.

Egypt is facing this threat with its full support of a political settlement in Libya, on the one hand, and putting pressure behind the unification of the Libyan National Army, on the other.

Territorial losses in Sinai, and the intense military presence in it, will imply that terrorist activities might diffuse to other areas like the Delta or Upper Egypt, specifically within the context of relocation.

This means that Egypt will need very high degrees of coordination between its security institutions (the Armed Forces, Interior Ministry and intelligence) in its vision for its counter-terrorism strategy for 2018.

Recent changes in some key security positions signal that the regime is aware of the transformation of the threat and is institutionally adapting to it. Finally, the combination of lone-wolf strategy and politically significant targets requires intensifying the security presence at all facilities that have the potential to be targeted in 2018.

Statistics say that Egypt’s efforts to counter terrorism have been successful in reducing the number of yearly terrorist attacks over the past three years. Recognising the transformation of the threat and adjusting the strategy is key in maintaining that success. It is a slow battle, but one that will certainly be won.
Interesting map with table at the link shows location and number of jihadi attacks during 2015-2017, broken down by year and type.
Posted by:trailing wife

#3  Move the Kurds to Sinai and Paleostein and move the paleos to Turkey, they deserve each other.
Posted by: AlanC   2018-01-25 08:28  

#2  Yea, well, third time's a charm.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2018-01-25 03:02  

#1  Sisi has been Faithful and extended trust with Israel on the Sinai with actions. IDF picks up the phone and says "go ahead".

This guy bailed me out a very mucky situation and is very much worthy of support.

Egypt is now a partner and a stabilizing force in the Middle East which is proof that Prayers do come true.

But that was hard work.
Posted by: newc   2018-01-25 01:12  

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