"This is part of Ukraine that has economic problems and social problems because of the conflict anyway, and so by squeezing the access to this area of Ukraine, they are making the social or economic conditions even worse and possibly, possibly trying to create some kid of social upheaval there," Permanent Secretary Kristjan Prikk, the top civilian in the NATO member’s Ministry of Defense, told the Washington Examiner.
Prikk visited Washington just days after Russia seized three Ukrainian vessels in the Kerch Strait between the Black Sea and Azov.
He said that incident entails a "very direct escalation" of the Ukraine crisis because it marks the first open clash between Russian and Ukrainian forces since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. More than 10,000 people on all sides have been killed in the related fighting in eastern Ukraine, but Moscow portrays the conflict has an intra-Ukrainian fight between Kiev loyalists and ethnic Russian separatists while reiterating its sovereignty over Crimea.
Though Ukraine is not a member of NATO, Prikk and other officials from the Baltic region see real national security significance to the outcome of that conflict.
"In a way, I would say Ukraine is doing the fighting for us there. They are in direct contact with Russian Federation forces there," the permanent secretary told the Washington Examiner. "They are the ones that from time to time also cause losses to them. So, we shouldn't neglect this conflict."
The Kremlin isn’t neglecting it. Russian officials deployed a fourth battalion of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Crimea on Thursday, according to a report from state-run media. One diplomat, speaking days prior to the Kerch Strait incident, warned of "an economic blockade, de facto" being imposed by Russia.
"It's part of the economic section of the hybrid warfare," Prikk said.