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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| How to Make Sense of the U.S. Withdrawal From Syria |
| 2018-12-21 |
| [Calrion Project] On a good day, Syria one of the most complex issues in the Middle East, let alone when the Trump administration announces a rapid U.S. withdrawal from Syria of our troops. The question is: How should we make sense of it? With hard and fast questions and answers, Clarion Project provides you below with key analysis points to stay up to speed on this developing story: 1. How will the U.S. withdrawal from Syria impact Syria in the next five to 10 years? Director of Clarion Intelligence Network Ryan Mauro draws a brief visual point for anyone wondering what might come next: "Think of Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal and before October, 2001. This will be worse." Iranian-backed Shiite militias are currently operating in the region against Sunni forces. The withdrawal of U.S. troops will inevitably trigger a Sunni uprising against these militias in Iraq, which will likely bring us back to where we started. The situation is ripe to get worse. 2. How might the U.S. withdrawal from Syria impact America? In a nutshell, expect the Saudis to dramatically increase support to the Salafists in Syria to compete with their enemies: Turkey, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Qatar coalition. You can expect the following things to happen due to this support: Turkey will crush the Syrian Kurdish protectorate in Syria which they see as a direct threat to them and just another step in establishing an autonomous Kurdish state in the region, something Turkey will do anything to stop.America will cede influence in the region to Iran and Russia. Iran will build military posts north of the Golan Heights in Israel which they will use to increase the frequency and intensity of attacks against Israel’s northern border. This will deepen the Israeli-Iranian proxy war which has been going on in Syria. Russia will harden its Syrian air and naval bases in Tartous and Latakia and strengthen its ability to deploy military forces west of the Mediterranean. This is key as Russia’s bases in Syria are its only naval access to the Mediterranean. 3. How does U.S. withdrawal from Syria keep America safer? The short answer is it doesn’t. Senator Lindsay Graham correctly stated that this is an Obama-level mistake. America’s policy towards ISIS should be similar to a physician’s treatment plan for an aggressive cancer. Stopping treatment in the middle of the disease will only allow it to grow. ISIS is a cancer. It has been (somewhat) pushed into remission, but it has not been defeated. If we withdraw, it is certain to metastasize ‐ and not only in Syria and Iraq. Left unchecked in the region by a U.S. withdrawal from Syria, ISIS’ current low-level presence in Iran and Turkey will grow. 4. How does a U.S. withdrawal from Syria impact American allies on the ground? A U.S. withdrawal is a total betrayal of both the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the latter of which includes Christians. America will also be abandoning its only reliable ally, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). We can now expect Turkey to control the non-Kurdish rebel areas using rebels loyal to Turkey’s Islamist and fanatical president, Recep Erdogan. Moreover, it’s not a coincidence this withdrawal comes at the same time that an offensive by Erdogan against the Kurds in northern Syria is imminent. In short, in addition to enabling Iranian and Russian power in the region, the U.S. withdrawal from Syria will bring Erdogan one step closer to realizing his dream of being crowned the caliph of his newly-revived neo-Ottoman empire. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #18 2K is a rounding error. I assume we had more than that in the Syrian theater(s) before we "entered" and will continue to have that after we "withdraw". The hyperventilating reminds me of the Khashoggi killing. Apparently, I'm meant to be really worked up about this but am having trouble following the approved narrative on why. |
| Posted by: Classical_Liberal 2018-12-21 23:27 |
#17 So surrender Syria to Russia and Iran. Great idea. Fucking great idea. It was already theirs. The Assads have been Russian clients since they were called "Soviets", and the Iranians have been funding every Muslim militia in Lebanon since the '70s. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2018-12-21 21:00 |
| #16 We have allies and equipment in Israel and Saudi Arabia, and bases in Iraq and Turkey. How is withdrawing 2,000 troops from the Syrian shitshow "abandoning the region"? |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2018-12-21 20:58 |
| #15 Let's be clear, the idea of nation building in Syria was never the end goal. Something you couldn't anyways in an Islamic country. Without destroying every mosque. Primary point, 2,000 (?) troops. Not a major footprint. And their killing shit jihadists. Not forgetting, how did bin Obama's troop withdrawal workout? So surrender Syria to Russia and Iran. Great idea. Fucking great idea. |
| Posted by: Woodrow 2018-12-21 18:10 |
| #14 "prevail in conflict and sustain strong U.S. global influence" He says it right there. "prevail in conflict" is endless war. Strong US global influence is pure globalism. Globalists are evil fuckers who hate us and who freely spend our lives and wealth on war. Just imagine the nice things we could have in America with the money that's been spent on war since 9/11. Bring the troops home. The time for war is over. |
| Posted by: Phaigum Elmavimble9218 2018-12-21 17:06 |
| #13 The middle east will stop being a killing field when the participants either kill each other in significant numbers, or they get tired of killing each other, or they and their clans suffer enough losses. A strong and independent energy policy will save this country a lot of grief, as it finally started doing now. You do not want to buy your civilization's life blood from psychopaths. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2018-12-21 17:01 |
| #12 "that means fighting the wolf BEFORE he comes to your door." So the Saudis and the Turks and the Syrians are coming to our door? They're going to invade America if we don't stop them now? Do people really think that? That's just a flat out lie. |
| Posted by: Jeresh Slolutch2044 2018-12-21 17:01 |
| #11 Abandoning the region works just fine. What is the critical interest in Syria? Why is it so important to go to the extreme measure of war? Nobody has ever been able to tell me. What's the victory condition? What's the prize we get when we win? How do we know we've won? It's The Swamp that wants us there. Endless war. "We must do everything possible to advance an international order that is most conducive to our security, prosperity, and values" This is pure globalism. It is a lie. Our security and prosperity are just fine here in America. Meddling in places that don't concern us just generate more terrorist attacks. Osama Bin Laden got angry and took action because we occupied Saudi Arabia. Let's let these camel and goat fuckers fight it out and sit on the sidelines with popcorn as they waste the blood of their people and their wealth on a pointless war with no prize. The whole Middle East is not worth a single American's life. Fight me. |
| Posted by: Herb McCoy 2018-12-21 16:54 |
| #10 Whichever mod decided this thread was developing a holiday spirit problem, God bless you and Merry Christmas! |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2018-12-21 15:46 |
| #9 Ebbavirt Clunk4147 - I have done that. Now, how about a nice cup of apology and STFU from your loud mouth. Got a problem with my point? Address the point. Dont attack my person, take on the ideas - or are you so lacking in reason you cannot do that? Try taking the positions on, as stated by Gen MAttis because I agree with him, not with keyboard kommandos who preach mindless isolationism but cannot back it up without resorting to personal attacks. Attack Gen Mattis if you dare. Here are his words. Our troops continue to provide the capabilities needed to prevail in conflict and sustain strong U.S. global influence. One core belief I have always held is that our strength as a nation is inextricably linked to the strength of our unique and comprehensive system of alliance and partnerships. While the US remains the indispensable nation in the free world, we cannot protect our interests or serve that role effectively without maintaining strong alliances and showing respect to those allies. Like you, I have said from the beginning that the armed forces of the United States should not be the policeman of the world. Instead, we must use all tools of American power to provide for the common defense, including providing effective leadership to our alliances. We must do everything possible to advance an international order that is most conducive to our security, prosperity, and values, and we are strengthened in this effort by the solidarity of our alliances. That is the reason to not precipitously withdraw from Syria. Gradual phased and building strength for our allies. Not dumping and running as Obama did. Or do you want Trump to mimic Obama in this? |
| Posted by: Glolush Whusotch4899 2018-12-21 13:19 |
| #8 Let's just see how well the Kurds are armed when the Americans leave. And how well they are supplied from the new air base in Iraq. Way too little info to make judgement. Most of Isis were being killed from air strikes, not special forces. |
| Posted by: jvalentour 2018-12-21 11:48 |
| #7 Trump is abandoning the region. Sorry isolationists, that does not work. It will only embolden Iran and Turkey and the Saudis. Didnt you learn anything when Obama did the same thing in Iraq? America First? Yes - and that means fighting the wolf BEFORE he comes to your door. Isolationists are fools when it comes to looking long term. You're only delaying intervention, at which time our sons and daughters will pay even more in AMERICAN blood, instead of letting the locals bleed now under our direction. And just like Obama and Bush, Trump is screwing the Kurds, who have been loyal allies. And this is how we reward them. They could be a stabilizing force in the region but not if you listen to the Klngons and the ivy leaguers in Foggy Bottom. Not getting the wall built. Running off General Mattis. Letting the Saudis get away with murder. Mueller and the DoJ, Rosenstein and the FBI still unaccountable. Now throwing the region away to the Iranians, just like the State Dept swampies want? Has Trump lost his way? Is he getting bad advice from the Swamp? |
| Posted by: Glolush Whusotch4899 2018-12-21 11:05 |
| #6 The NYTs almost acting as a newspaper: NYTs on Syria draw down. Note Pompeo's remarks. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2018-12-21 10:27 |
| #5 Lost of alliances, strategics leverage, and loss of honor. LOSING |
| Posted by: Flusogum Slemble9878 2018-12-21 10:08 |
| #4 Mattis resigning as Pentagon chief after clashes with Trump |
| Posted by: Waldemar Clilet3472 2018-12-21 08:56 |
| #3 I say out. Out. Out. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2018-12-21 08:54 |
| #2 If America doesnt stay there getting troops killed for zero American benefit America's enemies will fight each other and weaken themselves. This is bad because SHUT UP! |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2018-12-21 08:51 |
| #1 Translation: keep the troops there so we can play empire and spend money! Don't take away our toys! Make America safer...sheesh. Has nothing to do with the safety of the US homeland. I mean reread question 2. Has nothing whatsoever to do with America at all. Not mentioned anywhere for obvious reasons: the American people and what we need. Globalists never think of us because to them we don't exist. |
| Posted by: Herb McCoy 2018-12-21 08:46 |