[Begin-Sadat Center for Stregegic Studies] BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,212, June 30, 2019EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: North Korea has found itself at a nuclear crossroads more than once, but the Trump-Pompeo-Bolton triumvirate significantly alters the current dynamic. The primary external forces acting on Pyongyang’s nuclear decision-making are China, Iran, and the US. The Americans could well prove effective against an aggressively antagonistic Iran.
Although this is not the first time North Korea finds itself at a nuclear crossroads, the present case is different. Notwithstanding some inconsistent remarks made recently by President Donald Trump and his NSA, John Bolton, the triumvirate formed by Trump, Bolton, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is a powerful integral, and one to give Kim Jong-un pause.
The February 2019 summit between Trump and Jong-un ended with no agreement, indicating real difficulty in making progress toward denuclearization of the north. There are at least three layers to the issue. First: what will be the price for Pyongyang’s agreement to comprehensive, complete denuclearization? Second: does North Korea really intend to implement such an agreement? And third: if it does not, will noncompliance be detected by intelligence communities and tackled effectively?
Shortly after the unsuccessful summit, a remarkable series of events took place: