Stamped US .45 Liberator pistol. If you have one today, it's worth between $1500. $2000.| Submit your comments on this article |
| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| A Major Conventional War Against Iran Is an Impossibility. Crisis within the US Command Structure |
| 2019-07-22 |
| [Global Research] In this article, we examine America’s war strategies, including its ability to launch an all out theater war against the Islamic Republic on Iran. A follow-up article will focus on the History of US War Plans against Iran as well as the complexities underlying the Structure of Military Alliances. Under present conditions, an Iraq style all out Blitzkrieg involving the simultaneous deployment of ground, air and naval forces is an impossibility. For several reasons. US hegemony in the Middle East has been weakened largely as a result of the evolving structure of military alliances. The US does not have the ability to carry out such a project. There are two main factors which determine America’s military agenda in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran. 1. Iran’s Military There is the issue of Iran’s military capabilities (ground forces, navy, air force, missile defense), namely its ability to effectively resist and respond to an all out conventional war involving the deployment of US and Allied forces. Within the realm of conventional warfare, Iran has sizeable military capabilities. Iran is to acquire Russia’s S400 state of the art air defense system. Iran is ranked as "a major military power" in the Middle East, with an estimated 534,000 active personnel in the army, navy, air force and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It has advanced ballistic missile capabilities as well as a national defense industry. In the case of a US air attack, Iran would target US military facilities in the Persian Gulf. 2. Evolving Structure of Military Alliances The second consideration has to do with the evolving structure of military alliances (2003-2019) which is largely to the detriment of the United States. Several of America’s staunchest allies are sleeping with the enemy. Countries which have borders with Iran including Turkey and Pakistan have military cooperation agreements with Iran. While this in itself excludes the possibility of a ground war, it also affects the planning of US and allied naval and air operations. Until recently both Turkey (NATO heavyweight) and Pakistan were among America’s faithful allies, hosting US military bases. From a broader military standpoint, Turkey is actively cooperating with both Iran and Russia. Moreover, Ankara has acquired (July 12, 2019) ahead of schedule Russia’s state of the art S-400 air defense system while de facto opting out from the integrated US-NATO-Israel air defense system. Needless to say the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is in crisis. Turkey’s exit from NATO is almost de facto. America can no longer rely on its staunchest allies. Moreover, US and Turkish supported militia are fighting one another in Syria. Moreover, several NATO member states have taken a firm stance against Washington’s Iran policy: "European allies are grappling with mounting disagreements over foreign policy and growing irritated with Washington’s arrogant leadership style." "The most important manifestation of growing European discontent with U.S. leadership is the move by France and other powers to create an independent, "Europeans only" defense capability" (See National Interest, May 24, 2019) Iraq has also indicated that it will not cooperate with the US in the case of a ground war against Iran. Under present conditions, none of Iran’s neigbouring states including Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia would allow US-Allied ground forces to transit through their territory. Neither would they cooperate with the US in the conduct of an air war. In recent developments, Azerbaijan which in the wake of the Cold War became a US ally as well as a member of NATO’s partnership for peace has changed sides. The earlier US-Azeri military cooperation agreements are virtually defunct including the post-Soviet GUAM military alliance (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova). Bilateral military and intelligence agreements between Iran and Azerbaijan were signed in December 2018. In turn, Iran collaborates extensively with Turkmenistan. With regard to Afghanistan, the internal situation with the Taliban controlling a large part of Afghan territory, would not favor a large scale deployment of US and allied ground forces on the Iran-Afghan border. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #23 Stamped US .45 Liberator pistol. If you have one today, it's worth between $1500. $2000. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2019-07-22 22:53 |
| #22 Didn't we drop one-use pistols into occupied France for the resistance? Something like that might limit the Mullahs public appearances and cause them to lose face. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2019-07-22 21:47 |
| #21 Punitive expedition. Inflict pain. Strike fear. |
| Posted by: Lex 2019-07-22 20:33 |
| #20 Oh woe is us |
| Posted by: KBK 2019-07-22 17:59 |
| #19 Chermany vill just have to zell efen more dual use schtuff to Iran! |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2019-07-22 17:23 |
| #18 We need to give this fight to SOCOM and the US Marines Occupy the oil port facilities and what else do they have? Oh yeah, gather and gas the Imams then turn the mosks into REAL education centers. I like your thinking. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2019-07-22 15:30 |
| #17 More silliness and hand wringing. They are strategically vulnerable. While a conventional war, such as Iraq is not the best option, beating Iran is not a difficult task depending on the end state your after. If your after a post WWII reconstruction all you need to do is look at Iraq and Afghanistan to see it does not work in Arab nations. Removing them as a threat to the world and region is a short task that can be completed with a very limited force structure. And this is where the rub is. All the Pentagon generals want their piece of the fight to go, so the plan puts everyone on the boat, even if they are not needed. We need to give this fight to SOCOM and the US Marines, those two organizations can pull from the other services for support and end Iran within a week or two. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2019-07-22 14:32 |
| #16 Cut those ungrateful bastards loose. I've never seen so much hate for those who have done so much for Europe. 75 years of peace and they can't even say thank you. |
| Posted by: Herb McCoy 2019-07-22 14:11 |
| #15 It doesn’t matter who the American president is, nor how much they love him at the start of his term in office, the Europeans will quickly become annoyed by his arrogant leadership style. It’s all a question of who ought to be leading, you see, especially when a closer look reveals how many members of a given European government (plus senior bureaucrats) are actually members of the hereditary aristocracy. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2019-07-22 12:43 |
| #14 "European allies are grappling with mounting disagreements over foreign policy and growing irritated with Washington’s arrogant leadership style. What I've always heard is we bribe them massively with defense welfare, unfair trade agreements, and free US Navy protection for the vaunted European exports. All paid straight out of the pocket of the suffering American taxpayer. In return, we are purchasing compliance with the goals of the globalists in the unelected US government. If we're not even getting that, then what the hell are we bribing Europe for? Why are we in NATO? Europe is getting into bed with Russia, I say cut them loose if they don't see the threat. They're not children and we're not the parent, we don't have to "save them from themselves". |
| Posted by: Herb McCoy 2019-07-22 12:01 |
| #13 LINK to 49 trillion derivative story |
| Posted by: 3dc 2019-07-22 10:31 |
#12 I hope the apeasers of Iran and Russia (like Turkey and Germany) suffer collateral damage of any conflict. Well the Deutche Bank pending total implosion is not a positive Karma event for Germany. $49 Trillion in derivative exposure is pretty fricking major. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2019-07-22 10:00 |
| #11 I guess the Pentagon needs some forty years more to come up with a war plan. |
| Posted by: Chereting Pelosi1889 2019-07-22 09:44 |
| #10 Prior to WWI, a Russian economist said war in Europe was impossible because all of their economies were interlocked and dependent. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2019-07-22 08:33 |
| #9 I would love a major confrontation with Iran to replace the muslim mullahs in Iran with a civilian government (reverse the Carter supported 1979 revolution). But because of all the bad actors who have aligned themselves with Iran, including Russia and Turkey, it would be a very difficult situation to counter Iran and all of its proxies. But I do believe the current strategy of starving Iran with sanctions is the right approach because Irans proxies require money to support their activiities. The signs are the sanctions are working. I hope the US can avoid a major conflict yet continue to bleed Iran through effective sanctions and to cause unrest amongst their civilian population. I hope the US can work with our allies like the Kurds to achieve these goals against Iran and even against Turkey to hopefully get Erdogan out of leadership. Because the Kurds were able to defeat ISIS they have been a great ally. If Iraq wants to side with Iranian proxies rather than with the US we should side with the Kurds so Iraq will understand the cost. Of course at the same time Russia and China are waiting for any chance to take advantage of the US by getting us involved in proxy wars like Korea and Vietnam in the past Now Afganistan, Iraq, Syria and Yeman have become proxy wars. I hope the apeasers of Iran and Russia (like Turkey and Germany) suffer collateral damage of any conflict. |
| Posted by: boomerc 2019-07-22 08:16 |
| #8 "Iran is ranked as "a major military power" in the Middle East... " So was Saddam. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2019-07-22 07:40 |
| #7 What's old is new again. I recall an article written back when the Shah was still in power, basically saying the same thing. |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2019-07-22 07:38 |
| #6 The Pentagon is another bureaucracy that should be somewhere far away from DC. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2019-07-22 07:28 |
| #5 What we should have done in Afghanistan on 9/12... |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2019-07-22 07:26 |
| #4 Anyone else notice everytime they write one of these articles (everyday) , there seems too be a crisis in the command structure? Maybe that could be charged too Obama , since he purged the military. |
| Posted by: chris 2019-07-22 07:25 |
| #3 ...I say we target their electrical generating capability. You want to live in the 12th century? We can arrange that. Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2019-07-22 04:17 |
| #2 almost their entire navy could be disabled in an hour or two similarly all their air bases could be disabled in even less time |
| Posted by: lord garth 2019-07-22 02:29 |
| #1 "A Major Conventional War Against Iran Is an Impossibility." (3) It would be unnecessary and extremely unpopular. Better to bomb strategic targets if e must go to war. Only boots on the ground should be special forces working alongside locals. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2019-07-22 01:44 |