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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Putin Now Owns the Syrian Chaos |
| 2019-10-26 |
| [Hudson Institute] One of the benefits of attending the Valdai Club annual meeting in Sochi is the opportunity to understand were and how strong the wind is blowing in Russian foreign policy. The speeches are not enough. Brief words exchanged in the empty halls of the large hotel up in the Polyana mountains speak much louder ‐ sometimes with an echo. snip The problem is acute in Syria. Russia has maneuvered itself into a preeminent position and has even succeeded in forcing the United States to conclude that its position in the country is unsustainable. Trump has just announced a withdrawal. But the problem with being in charge is that no one else can provide order. Trump wasn't forced. It was the right decision, one in the interests of the American people. It wasn't in the interest of the tiny number of globalists in America, thus their fury at their war being taken away from them. Russia perhaps feels that it can do it on its own, but it knows it must find new tools and adopt a new mindset in this expanded role. In Valdai, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov again assumed the role of indefatigable mediator between all factions and interests in Syria ‐ although a certain exasperation now seems to be creeping in. When Putin meets Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi this week, he may well feel that his life mission has been accomplished. For the first time, he sits at the apex of the world order. In what concerns Syria at least, no one is above him. Syria is a worthless piece of desert. He can have it. Now he owns all of the problems there. A big win for America. We have no interests there. But that also means that no one else can solve the problems arising everywhere. He must bring together Turkey and the Syrian Kurds, the latter still under the leadership of a violent armed organization. Then he must conciliate the Kurds and the Assad regime and, finally, prevent a war between Turkey and Syria. If Russia fails, all these actors will quickly turn against it. The question thus is: if Russia is under the obligation of creating political order in Syria, what makes us believe that it is up to the task and willing to pay the associated costs ‐ when even the United States is powerless to create order and does not see the benefits of doing so? Who the hell said that was our job? None of these people have ever questioned their assumptions. The moment reminds me of the idea advanced after Davos two years ago that China would replace America as the lynchpin of globalization and free trade. As Machiavelli could have told us, things are never so simple. |
| Posted by:Herb McCoy |
| #9 Same here. Ditto. |
| Posted by: Lex 2019-10-26 17:08 |
| #8 I am just a opinionized dude with a $400 computer. I trust our beloved and duly elected POTUS to reach an answer infinitely better than I could conceive. There is a way forward. I am sure of that. |
| Posted by: Albemarle Gray4543 2019-10-26 16:32 |
| #7 ^ deal. Sounds good. |
| Posted by: Lex 2019-10-26 16:12 |
| #6 A somewhat more Modest proposal: peace conference. Assad remains president of Syria. Ba'athist Party with Assad remains. If that government wishes to allow the Russians a Mediterranean port on Syrian soil, it's their call. Russians and Syrians agree to keep the Turks in Turkey, the Iranians out, and Syrian Kurds submit to Syrian rule. 30km safe zone remains for repatriation of Syrian refugees now in Turkey. Russia responsible for security there. Kurds abandon this area. Agreement on mopup operations to clean out remaining ISIS cells, to be followed by a multi-national peacekeeping force made up of Gulf Arabs, Gurkhas, Russians, maybe some NATO troops as agreed to by sovereign state of Syria. The one with a seat at the UN. |
| Posted by: Albemarle Gray4543 2019-10-26 16:09 |
| #5 Modest proposal: peace conference. Assad gets safe passage to Crimea and a nice villa for him and his wife. Ba'athist Party sans Assad remains. If that government wishes to allow the Russians a Mediterranean port on Syrian soil, it's their call. All parties agree to keep the Turks in Turkey, the Iranians out, and Syrian Kurds submit to Syrian rule. Agreement on mopup operations to clean out remaining ISIS cells, to be followed by a multi-national peacekeeping force made up of Gulf Arabs, Gurkhas, maybe some Danes, Dutch, and East European NATO troops. |
| Posted by: Lex 2019-10-26 12:50 |
| #4 Now we have the option of supporting anti-Russian forces in the region if we want to be shits. I suspect the Russians have been doing as much for the last 20 years. |
| Posted by: ruprecht 2019-10-26 12:28 |
| #3 Let another Circusmaster run this particular Shitshow. |
| Posted by: Lex 2019-10-26 11:51 |
| #2 Syria is a worthless piece of desert. He can have it. The Russians care about a warm water port on the Med. That's it. All the Calvinball squabbling over parts of Syria is just local politics. If they have to take strong measures like flying strategic bombing strikes from the Motherland to damp down the indigenous inhabitants, they'll do it. Again. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2019-10-26 11:48 |
| #1 The Great Game is now a drunken arm wrestling match over a cesspool. Since the US does not need ME oil anymore we don't need to be involved. We do have to stick with our ally Israel but we and they should look to border security and strategic Missile defense as our long term posture. Let the sarascens gut each other, on their dirt, on their dime. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2019-10-26 00:09 |