[Mil.com] An infectious disease breaks out in a densely populated metropolis and is spreading rapidly, causing respiratory failure and death in its victims. As local containment and response mechanisms break down and cases multiply, it becomes clear that a global response -- spanning governments, humanitarian organizations, health agencies and the military -- will be required.That scenario is not a condensed narrative of the COVID-19 pandemic that currently has much of the globe on lockdown. Rather, it's the premise of a war game run last September by the Naval War College (NWC) in Newport, Rhode Island. And its findings -- released in summary format Wednesday -- reveal prescient and sometimes troubling parallels to the real-world response effort that continues today.
Yes, prescient indeed.
Called Urban Outbreak 2019, the war game involved 50 experts who spent two days coordinating response, containment and messaging efforts around the notional pandemic. Some of the conclusions, such as the way forced mass quarantine can backfire and trigger additional disease spread, and how the mortality rate is better than the overall number of disease cases in assessing the scale of an outbreak -- have been proved out through the response to the novel coronavirus.
Other insights specific to the military's response also hit home.