[Mises] Imagine an articulate chief lemming bragging that not only had his followers jumped off a cliff, but that they had done so in far greater numbers than any other slice of the rodents. This is the position occupied by the US regarding testing for COVID-19.We’ve done more testing than any other country and bragged a lot about doing so; but no one seems to have survived to give a proper interpretation of the results.A lot of mathematical stuff at the link.
The professional and college athletics departments are making the same error. They are testing their athletes daily or every other day using a test that is no better than 70 percent sensitive. Eventually all the players will test positive. They will be isolated for fourteen days, after which they may again test positive, ad infinitum.
Perhaps this explains some of the confusing reports we've read?
It should be obvious from the data above that all the testing we have done and continue to do has likely confused more than enlightened. The virus is real and in the wild. How should we effectively deal with it? The best indicator of our status is how many people are in the hospital because of a clinical diagnosis of viral pneumonia. More specifically, how many are in the ICU. Note that testing here is unnecessary, as the assumption today is that any case of viral pneumonia is caused by the coronavirus.
Since May 18, in the US, according to Wordometers, the number of serious or critical cases has varied between 18,000 and 15,000, roughly trending downwards. Bit of an uptick in the last week.
If our situation regarding the epidemic improves, widespread testing will have played no role in this improvement. Why any improvement? We recognized who the at-risk population was and they took shelter and continue to do so. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that mortality from COVID-19 in patients younger than 50 is 0.05 percent. Virtually all of this mortality in younger patients comes from those with comorbidity. We also have gotten better at treating patients with severe pneumonia caused by the coronavirus.
The virus is likely to be with us for some time. Epidemics end either when those most susceptible to the pathogen have been exposed to it or when an effective and safe vaccine is available. We don’t have such a vaccine. It’s hard to know when or if one will be available. And the logistics of manufacturing and administering billions of doses are formidable. In the meanwhile, we have to coexist with it while not destroying society, socially and economically, in the process. We will also have to admit that our current testing regime has alarmed the planet without contributing a health benefit.
But in April everyone told us we needed massive testing! I swear I remember that!