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| President Trump Is Outperforming His 2016 Polling in Swing States |
| 2020-10-09 |
| [PJ] While the mainstream media is once again pushing the narrative of the inevitable coronation of the Democratic nominee, the polls might actually be telling a much different story than most headlines suggest. According to Newsweek’s Katherine Fung, while "polls show that swing state voters may prefer Democratic nominee Joe Biden over President Donald Trump ... Trump is doing better than he was this time in 2016." "According to an analysis from Real Clear Politics, Biden holds a 4.4 percentage point lead over the president in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona," she explains. "However, Democrat Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by 4.8 points in these swing states this time in 2016—a slightly greater advantage than the one Biden currently has." Biden’s leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states Trump won, are also smaller than Clinton’s leads at this time four years ago. "The Real Clear Politics average shows that Biden is ahead with a 6.3 lead in Pennsylvania and a 6.2 advantage in Michigan. Comparably, Clinton was leading in these two states by 9.2 points and 9.6 points, respectively, this time in 2016." Similarly, polls for Wisconsin and North Carolina show Biden with a smaller lead than they did for Hillary Clinton back in 2016. The only outliers to this trend are Florida and Arizona. Biden’s lead in Florida is at 3.5, compared to Hillary’s 3.2 point lead in 2016. Biden also leads in Arizona by 3.4 points, compared to Trump’s 0.7 point advantage in 2016. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #8 My favorite recent poll was post Pence/Harris by USA Today who didn't even list Pence as a potential debate winner. They must have thought themselves clever by listing The Fly as a winner, pulling in some 20% of the vote. Perhaps they thought that clever too. For me, they show how poor Harris did. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2020-10-09 22:00 |
| #7 At least half of these polls oversample Democrats; it happened in 2016 and it's happening again. I'm just waiting for CNN, etc. to do the 'ol "call FL for the Dem by 7:00 PM so they can try to depress the Panhandle vote". They do that one every stinking fucking time so this is just part of that strategy - to demoralize us. Not gonna happen, Fredo Cuomo (not the homo)! |
| Posted by: Raj 2020-10-09 14:24 |
| #6 I have serious doubts about a lot of those double digit polls that throw the average off. Biden might have a higher number than the despised Hillary, but will be surprised if the lack of enthusiasm for Biden translates into real votes Nov. 3rd. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2020-10-09 12:26 |
| #5 I realize there are people who vote on the basis of "the last poll said," but not nearly as many as the media and pollsters would like to think. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-10-09 12:17 |
| #4 The best predictors are not BS polls with all their bias and sampling problems but actual elections - primaries and special elections - that happened earlier in the year. Sean Trende has been analyzing the data from Washington state's primaries since 2010 and found that it predicts about 90% of the November outcome. Other political scientists have also analyzed actual primary results and have found the same thing: real election data is far more accurate than polling data. This year's and 2018 data from primary elections predict a Trump victory in November. The polls are horseshit. Ignore them. |
| Posted by: Zorba Cheatch3547 2020-10-09 11:15 |
| #3 There are no honest polls. They are all push polls that will show a huge Dem lead until the day before the election. Then, suddenly, the Dem lead will disappear and the pollsters will use that number to show how accurate they were all along. |
| Posted by: Iblis 2020-10-09 10:23 |
| #2 When are the 'polling agencies' going to include the number of people reached and who hung up? Also release details about their sampling methodology and compare their presumed D:R:Independent split to actual, up-to-date registration data. Plus the data showing their turnout assumptions for each demo. These Potemkin polls are deliberately undersampling pro-Trump, high-turnout voters, just as they did in 2016. |
| Posted by: Uleaper Thaick3705 2020-10-09 09:49 |
| #1 Polls the ultimate fake news. When are the 'polling agencies' going to include the number of people reached and who hung up? If they have your phone number, they have your address. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2020-10-09 07:28 |