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| Home Front: Politix |
| Something's happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls |
| 2020-11-03 |
| [LI] The polls are going to drive people to madness, the people that is who obesess about polls. Just because so much of polling is garbage, however, does not mean all polling is garbage. It might happen that Biden has a sweep, that can’t be ruled out, if he really, truly is ahead by 7.8% nationally (today’s RCP average). That’s double the Hillary national average advantage. But there are just too many things that don’t align with that narrative, that suggest the national averages not only may be more wrong than in 2016, they may be particularly wrong in the swing states that matter and will decide who wins the electoral college. I never thought of Iowa as a swing state, but it probably is. Obama won it by 9 points in 2008 and 5 points in 2012, Trump won it by almost 10 points in 2016. Iowa also famously recently was put by the Cook Political Report into the toss-up column for both the presidential and Senate races, suggesting Trump was going down hard if he was barely hanging on in a state he won easily in 2016. Man, if Trump is running 10 points behind 2016 and Joni Ernst is in serious trouble, then maybe those national averages are right. Depressing. BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #3 Dims may not need any state to win, just immoral lawyers and courts. |
| Posted by: AlmostAnonymous5839 2020-11-03 16:22 |
| #2 They dont need PA or FL to win, but if Trump locks those in, then any on of the three upper midwest seals the election for Trump: MI WI MN. And those states tend to vote similarly to Iowa as of late. If you hear 2 of those 3 called for Trump, along with PA and FL, then its over barring oddities in NC or GA. And short of flat-out fraud in Houstan, Austin, urban areas of San Antonio and Dallas, Texas isn't going to go Blue. That's just fundraising hype for both parties |
| Posted by: Theager Borgia1057 2020-11-03 16:18 |
| #1 ...And rumint has it that by noon EST, Biden's people were now saying that 'they don't need PA or FL to win..." Stay tuned Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2020-11-03 14:46 |