| Submit your comments on this article |
| Home Front: Politix |
| Hot Takes: If the Early Return Data Is Correct, Democrats Should Be Preparing Themselves for a Bad Tuesday |
| 2020-11-03 |
| [RedState] On Friday, I posted over at VIP all of the early returns that have come in thus far for all of the battleground states. That data is a combination of voter registration data, ballot data of how many ballots were requested, and commercial data that explains voter behavior. The data has updated since then, but that data was bad news for Democrats Friday, and it was even worse for them by Sunday night. Democrats really needed to run up the score in early voting in order to overcome the large Trump leaning turn-out expected for Election Day. At this point, in 5 of the 12 Battleground States, Republicans currently lead in early returns, including in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Short of a massive Dem turnout on Tuesday, those states all fall to Trump. Furthermore, Dems only lead by 1 point in returns in Arizona, 3 points in Nevada, 2 points in Florida, and 5 points in North Carolina. Should the DOE ...I believe that stands for Day of Election rather than US Department of Education... vote carry for Trump in those states, Trump should win those states as well. If Trump wins those states, He ends up with 284 electoral votes, and the biggest part of that is that leaves Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Minnesota on the table.Furthermore, Dems should be terrified of the fact that in most of the states in which they lead, Democrats have burned through more of their registered voters than have the Republicans. In Pennsylvania, for instance, only 15% of Republicans have voted to date, compared to 35% of Democrats. In every state in which Republicans trail in returns, except for North Carolina, Republicans have more voters to turn out than Democrats. In North Carolina, Dems have 2 points more of their registered voters to push out to the polls while Republicans have a 1 point lead in the number of voters to turn out in Florida. In every other state in which Dems lead, Republicans have a double-digit advantage in election day voting. The other huge factor for Dems is the amount of outstanding vote in the states in which they lead. In Pennsylvania, between 64 and 65% of the vote has yet to be cast. In Minnesota, that number is between 51 and 52%. Iowa? Between 44 and 46%. These numbers are why you have seen the collective panic from the left in the last few days. The major push for mail ballots that was going to solidify a massive, insurmountable lead only occurred in one state, Pennsylvania, where estimates have Dem ballot returns up by 43 points. The problem again? More than 60% of the state has yet to vote and Trump is expected to do extremely well in DOE voters. |
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #3 Exactly Garth. This is what Colorado's early numbers are: Unaffiliated voters not aligned with a political party have turned in the most ballots with 988,864 (43.54% of the total), followed by registered Democrats with 875,822 (38.56%) followed by Republicans with 744,283 (32.77%) The Ds only have a 5.79 point lead. If the Unaffiliated break even 60% for Trump, Colorado flips red. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2020-11-03 10:08 |
| #2 Article doesn't mention cheating. Cheating matters two ways, stealing the election of delegitimizing it. Actual cheating almost certainly benefits Biden. The mere belief in cheating also benefits Biden. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2020-11-03 09:24 |
| #1 article doesn't mention independent voters what is deal with that |
| Posted by: Lord Garth 2020-11-03 07:16 |