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Home Front: Politix
EXPERT: The Odds of Biden Overcoming Trump's Lead in the Four Swing States Was 'Less Than One in a Quadrillion'
2020-12-09
[PJ] White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany on Tuesday evening highlighted an incredible statistic that is included in State of Texas v. Pennsylvania, et. al.

"Expert analysis using a commonly accepted statistical test further raises serious questions as to the integrity of this election," the lawsuit reads. "The probability of former Vice President Biden winning the popular vote in the four Defendant States—Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—independently given President Trump’s early lead in those States as of 3 a.m. on November 4, 2020, is less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000."

"The odds of Joe Biden winning all four of those states collectively is less than one in a quadrillion to the fourth power," it continues.
Posted by:Besoeker

#5  Yes, just before the heat death of the universe.
Posted by: Ulavirong Omeager2818   2020-12-09 17:27  

#4  less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000."

So, it could have happened.
Posted by: Matt   2020-12-09 17:24  

#3  Math be rayciss
Posted by: Gleng Slineque3279   2020-12-09 11:56  

#2  The Uniparty is betting that among 70 million Trump supporters not more than a tiny minority can understand statistical reasoning. They assume that we're as ignorant and math-challenged as they are. Bad assumption.

Even a back of the envelope calculation with publicly-available data for election results since 1996 would show that the conditional probability for Biden actually winning Pennsylvania, when he lost Ohio by 8 points, is about one in a thousand.

The typical gap between OH and PA is about 5 points; the standard error of this mean value is about 0.8. So what Biden and his tools are claiming -- a 9-point gap between the actual OH result (Trump, +8) and their claimed PA result (Trump, -1) -- would represent about a six sigma difference.

That's roughly equal to the probability that Hunter Biden actually is, as his Pop said, "the most brilliant man I know."

How long do these morons expect to get away with such stupidity?
Posted by: Groluger Brown2356   2020-12-09 05:46  

#1  Whatever she says, put me down as concurring.
Posted by: Besoeker   2020-12-09 03:38  

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