~ Unk
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| -Great Cultural Revolution |
| The Age of Over-Abundant Elites |
| 2021-04-20 |
| [bombthrower] I’ve been reading Peter Turchin’s "Ages of Discord", which tries to look at patterns of societal strife that he found in previous, pre-industrial civilizations such as Rome and France, and examine how it holds up in a post-industrial era. It bears some resemblance to other cycle theories like Strauss and Howe’s "Fourth Turning" or other long-wave models like Kondratiev Waves (K-Waves). The basic premise behind these ideas are that societies undergo cyclical or pendulum-like dynamics between relatively steady states of prosperity and stability, the internal dynamics of which then produce the conditions that precipitate reversions into turbulent periods of strife and chaotic change. The important thing to keep in mind is that to that the likes of Turchin and other historical statisticians, the periods of societal discord that they try to map may look like this: If there’s one thing in this highly polarized world that everybody probably does agree on it’s that we are almost certainly already in one of these periods of discord right now. What I’m finding most interesting from Turchin’s take on this isn’t that periods of stability are not terminated by resource depletion (a la the climate alarmists), or any other "limits to growth" per se. While population growth in pre-industrial societies may bump up against "neo-Malthusian" limits, it sets up a counter-cyclical decline in population growth. How these forces interact in a transition from stability to chaos is that an over-abundance of elites creates a situation of the political class splitting into factions and fighting over the spoils of what is now a shrinking pie in terms of real economic wealth: |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #11 Communication seem to be the flexion point, The modern age was considered to have started with the invention of the printing press. The telegraph, the telephone, radio, television, each of these brought change. With cheaper communication satellites the choke points installed by central interest will start to fall , and things will get " interesting ." |
| Posted by: Phinetch Wherese4624 2021-04-20 14:26 |
| #10 Period of discord? maybe, barking mad? absolutely. |
| Posted by: Cesare 2021-04-20 13:01 |
| #9 How will we know when we have achieved a "civilized state?" The veneer of civilization seems to be thin at times. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2021-04-20 11:56 |
| #8 I've seen that, when former students kicked out for trumped up and bogus charges sue the 'institution of higher learning' in court. Then its mumble time from the defendants. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2021-04-20 11:23 |
| #7 #5,6 How about "the idea that a college degree increases one's financial value"? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2021-04-20 10:36 |
| #6 I also blame the student loan program, at least for accelerating our problems. It allowed kids to go into debt with no balance on the value of the degree on the other side. It also allowed universities to suck up government money, give the kid bigger loans and universities sucked up more. This encouraged universities to chase the money instead of providing value. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2021-04-20 10:30 |
| #5 This was addressed in Brave New World and why those in control limited the number of those to be endowed with position and authority. I blame the student loan program with removed the process of acquisition of a higher education via the GI Bill that imposed a degree of sorting out among the 'herd'. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2021-04-20 09:50 |
| #4 I don't believe our civilization will collapse, but I do believe half is going to flop hard making it difficult for the rest and forcing the rest to cleanup the mess. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2021-04-20 09:29 |
| #3 "History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Oftentimes Rhymes." ~ Unk |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2021-04-20 07:54 |
| #2 I've always thought the crash of civilizations came about when a critical point was reached by too many people "gaming" the system. A new civilization is invested in it's rules, laws and culture. As time goes by, various actors advance their own interests by evading, manipulating or ignoring those standards. When enough people do enough damage, faith in the civilization is lost and it ends. |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2021-04-20 07:47 |
| #1 In other words: humans are not evolutionary adapted for civilization. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2021-04-20 05:29 |