[Washington Examiner] There's a stunning assertion in a new Washington Post article about how Democrats view the current political situation. "Privately, many administration officials and allies contend that the state of affairs cannot get worse," the paper says, "thinking that Biden and the Democrats have hit their floor in negative approval ratings."Instead, those administration officials and allies appear to believe wonderful things are about to happen. They see the COVID pandemic fading from public concern. They see the supply chain problem getting better. They see the economy improving. And then Joe Biden will be popular again.
Here's the problem. Neither Biden nor his allies saw the problems coming in the first place. Indeed, the headline of the Washington Post article is, "Biden has underestimated problems facing the country — and Democrats fear that has become a political problem." The paper says that a "growing number of Democrats" worry that the president has "repeatedly underestimated the scale of the challenges facing the country" and that Biden's "tendency to downplay the issues has only made things worse." But now, those same Democrats "privately" contend that things "cannot get worse."
But things can get worse. Biden stubbornly discounted the danger posed by inflation. He rejected the views of respected experts who warned that his own policies — his party's massive stimulus bills — would make the problem worse. On COVID, he misjudged the threat of variants and did not know what to do when the delta wave hit. And on Afghanistan, he ignored the advisers who said his exit plan could become a fiasco. Given that record, why believe that Biden, who turns 79 on Saturday, will suddenly develop better judgment?
There are two issues here — the substance and the politics. Will inflation worsen, wiping out wage gains and making it more difficult for millions to get by? That's the substance. Will inflation continue to eat away at Biden's job approval rating? That's the politics. You will probably not be shocked to learn that Democrats are mostly talking about the politics.
Biden and his party's real problem, some Democrats told the Washington Post, is messaging, especially about those big spending bills. "There hasn't been great communication about what these bills mean for people," Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer told the paper. Indeed, the Washington Post reports that after yesterday's signing of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, the White House will conduct "an aggressive effort to sell his economic agenda, including robust travel from Biden and Cabinet officials and a media blitz."
"I don't think Democrats brag enough," Steven Reed, the Democratic mayor of Montgomery, Alabama, told the Washington Post. "I don't think we celebrate enough. I don't think that we tell people why we are bragging and why we are celebrating."
"We need to party and celebrate and really rub those deplorable faces in it"
But the very policy decision that Biden wants to promote and celebrate — passing those enormous spending bills — is the policy that is making inflation worse. Last February, just two weeks into the Biden presidency, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned the White House that the spending could spur inflation. The White House pooh-poohed it and told everyone not to worry. But now, Summers has been proven right and Biden wrong. So what is Biden proposing to do? Spend even more and try to do a better sales job.
Inflation is a substance problem. It is a real thing, making people's lives more difficult. COVID is a real thing. Afghanistan is a real thing. They are not communications problems. "Robust travel" and a "media blitz" will not solve them.
Every politician facing falling approval ratings wants to believe that his real problem is communications. That way, he doesn't have to change what he is doing; he only has to sell it more effectively. But Biden does not have a communications problem. He has a substance problem. And there is no reason to believe that it will get better.