[Hot Air] By comparison, just 13 House Republicans have announced their retirements so far. That tells us all we need to know about how the two party establishments view their respective chances this fall.House Dems are caught in the same predicament they were in January 2010, after rumblings of an earthquake in that fall’s midterms had already begun. On the one hand, Pelosi wanted anyone who was thinking of retirement to announce early and give the party time to recruit a credible nominee in their district. On the other hand, a slew of early retirements would raise anxiety within that the midterms were destined to be a bloodbath, possibly spooking some Dems who otherwise intended to run again into quitting as well.
The more Kathleen Rices there are, the more there are likely to be. Dilemmas, dilemmas.
I’m keen to know what sort of internal polling Rice was seeing to convince her to retire now. She’s only 57 and is serving just her fourth term in the House. She’s won most of her general elections comfortably too, gliding to a 13-point victory in 2020. Surely that was enough of a cushion to guarantee reelection this year too, right?
Well ... not exactly, say the pros. Unless a red tsunami materializes then yes, Rice’s district of NY-4 should go Democratic. But the odds of a red tsunami aren’t as small as they usually are. And so: