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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Russian preparing an assault in Kiev
2022-03-09
[Facebook - Clarice Feldman] ISW: Russian forces continued concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours.

The reported appearance of forces belonging to Chechen leader Ramazan Kadyrov, Russia’s Rosgvardia internal security formations, and the Liga (former Wagner) Private Military Company in the western outskirts of Kyiv may indicate that the Russian military is struggling to assemble sufficient conventional combat power to launch its assault on the capital. Russian forces near Kyiv made limited gains and prepared for limited drives to continue their attempted encirclement to the west.

Ukrainian forces have continued to challenge the lengthy Russian ground lines of communication leading from near Sumy to eastern Kyiv. Russian forces near Kharkiv have been steadily diverting to secure and extend those lines over the past few days, as we have reported.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 8 that Russian troops currently near Chernihiv appear to be moving east. We assess that those forces may seek to link up with troops coming from near Sumy to help them consolidate and protect their extended lines in support of the planned offensive against Kyiv.

The situation in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Ukraine remained largely unchanged in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian General Staff reporting of additional Russian efforts to advance on the city of Zaporizhya likely confirm that Russia intends to make blocking that city a priority. The forces Russia is so far moving toward Zaporizhya appear to be far too small to encircle or take it.

Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the western and eastern outskirts of Kyiv, especially in the Irpin area in the west and the Brovary area in the east;

Ukrainian forces are challenging the extended Russian lines reaching from Sumy, which Russian forces have not yet taken, to the eastern outskirts of Kyiv;

Russian troops are likely attempting to bypass Mykolayiv and cross the Southern Bug upriver of that city to permit an advance on Odesa combined with an impending amphibious operation against that city; and Russian forces are also driving north from Crimea toward the city of Zaporizhya.
Related:
Ramazan Kadyrov: 2020-11-16 Rojava's administration hands over 30 children of ISIS-linked parents to Russia
Related:
Rosgvardia: 2022-01-14 Russian FSB detains seven ISIS Bad Guys
Rosgvardia: 2021-12-23 122,000 Russian troops deployed within a 200km operational distance from the borders of Ukraine, as well as another 143,500 troops within a distance of 400km
Rosgvardia: 2021-12-01 Rosgvardia generals suspected of embezzlement and abuse
Related:
Wagner: 2022-03-06 Expert Sivkov estimated losses among Russian troops in Ukraine at 0.1%
Wagner: 2022-02-26 Day Z + 1. On the outskirts of Kiev
Wagner: 2022-02-09 SOHR: 150 Syrian Mercenaries Arrive in Libya
Posted by:badanov

#30  #27 - thank you WM for that bit o' ELP factoid. Not familiar with that piece. I guess, back in the day I day I was too busy trying to finger out Karn Evil 9 on my little synth. Gonna look that up right now.
Posted by: Rex Mundi   2022-03-09 16:04  

#29  Listened to the March 2 call with Ray McGovern and Mearsheimer.

My observation fwiw of the recording of that Victoria Nuland-Geoff Pyatt call from 2014 is Nuland is one hell of a cold calculating lady. She says fewer words than the blabbing ambassador, and every word of hers is carefully chosen and enunciated in that delicate soft voice.

Someday there's gonna be a movie about The Lady Macbeth of Kiev
Posted by: Porthos   2022-03-09 14:34  

#28  Thank you very much DarthVader.
Posted by: Whiskey Mike   2022-03-09 14:12  

#27  Simplistic take: Kiev existed in the fifth century. The Rus had moved south down the Dneiper River, and found Kiev already there. Kiev became their hub/capitol. Rus were 'the people who rowed'. This tortuously evolved in Russia.

Great Gate of Kiev, now also called the Golden Gate. My first exposure to the compositions surrounding the this historical gate was Emerson, Lake, and Palmer's take. Then, I learned of others.

Kim Cul Deok's take. https://youtu.be/FncXqa14ANE

Petr Gladysh's take also with Baba Yaga: https://youtu.be/9vVsBbsAQTs

All from MUSSORGSKY Pictures at an Exhibition.

I have never been to Kiev. I wish I had. The closest I got was a guided tour of Vienna (Wein) courtesy of a GRU Major/agent trying to sell me/my company technology from the newly collapsed Soviet Union. I learned a lot, bought a lot.
Posted by: Whiskey Mike   2022-03-09 14:10  

#26  https://returnyoutubedislike.com/

Plug in that allows you to see the YouStupid dislikes again.
Posted by: DarthVader   2022-03-09 14:02  

#25  From where I sit thumbs up.
Posted by: Whiskey Mike   2022-03-09 13:34  

#24  So, did you watch it, Mike? Thumbs up or thumbs down?
If you don't have time, the March 2 talk with McGovern summarizes in about 20 minutes. Crystal clear and eloquently laid out in either case.
Tell us:👍🏻or 👎🏻?
Posted by: Hunter Bidens Laptop   2022-03-09 13:06  

#23  Ref 19: Dear Hunter Bidens Laptop; Youtube turned off the 'thumbs down' rating feature a few weeks ago. Too many proles expressing themselves. I understand that there is a back door so that if you have a YT channel, they may be visible.
Posted by: Whiskey Mike   2022-03-09 12:59  

#22  that University of Chicago lecture Mearsheimer gave in 2016 2015

He's actually been warning since at least 2008 that Russia would not take Nato expansion lying down. A lesson in Realpolitik
Posted by: Zenobia the Well-mannered1808   2022-03-09 12:40  

#21  Folks that never understood the high motivation, low tech, zero hoopla, silent plodding MO. Which is why their 'estimates' and 'analyses' always screws their armies.

Patience may be a virtue but I'm afraid most Americans have forgotten it. Americans want what they want and they want it right now.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2022-03-09 12:33  

#20  History Lesson: Ukraine Belonged to Russia for Centuries — They Have Almost Identical Cultures and Languages — Kiev Used to Be the Capital of Russia

Or "We Want Our Old Capitol Back"
Posted by: Glomoque Guelph1253   2022-03-09 12:07  

#19  Yeah, and Mearsheimer even predicted this disaster -- six years ago.

Amazed that YouTube hasn't tried to take down the video of that University of Chicago lecture Mearsheimer gave in 2016.
Then again, YT must be making a tidy sum from "Why The Ukraine Crisis Is The West's Fault."

It's already gotten about 15 million new views in the last several days -- last I checked it was up to 18 million views and over 15,000 English-language comments, most of them from American viewers.

Plus 202,000 thumbs-up ratings -- and zero unfavorable. Is anyone in Washington noticing?

If every American voter saw /heard the Mearsheimer lecture and the more recent talk, support for this disaster would shrink to zero
Posted by: Hunter Bidens Laptop   2022-03-09 11:24  

#18  /\ Excellent analysis.
Posted by: Besoeker   2022-03-09 11:10  

#17  John Mearsheimer is a true expert, the best we have
If our policy makers had listened to Mearsheimer even once during the last 15 years this disaster never would have happened

This summary from March 2 (posted on March 6) is devastating
Posted by: Hunter Bidens Laptop   2022-03-09 11:02  

#16  I think the "gig is up" - or very nearly so. It looks increasingly likely that Ivan doesn't care about international opinion, being cut out of SWIFT, or MacDonalds. He wants the Ukraine, and is determined to have her - starting with her capital. Or the rubble that was once her capital.

All quite horrible. I hope I'm wrong, the Russians screw this up, and loose. Humiliatingly. But I'm not seeing it.
Posted by: Secret Master    2022-03-09 10:58  

#15  
Granted, most of the 'experts' guiding the NATO policy are likely west point remfs grown up believing Russia is inherently inept, like the orks in Warhammer, that Russians lack the capacity to successfully accomplish any military operation... and so on. Folks that never understood the high motivation, low tech, zero hoopla, silent plodding MO. Which is why their 'estimates' and 'analyses' always screws their armies.
Posted by: Dron66046   2022-03-09 10:49  

#14  Also - sorry to bleg but your stuff is great - would you be able to list a few military analysis sites that you find especially worthwhile and reliable? (The ISW site is incredibly lame)

Thanks again - really appreciate what you do!
Posted by: Hunter Bidens Laptop   2022-03-09 10:48  

#13  k .. a bit to hard to find here. Wish there were a way to hashtag your stuff
Do you have a twitter feed? Thx

I read socialist media.

I don't post it.

The only place I actually write about this is at Rantburg.com Then I post it to socialist media.
Posted by: badanov   2022-03-09 10:47  

#12  Encirclement, isolation, and the starvation of Kiev is the RU strategy.

On FOX this morning Jack Keane enthusiastically supported the Polish MIG fighers to Ukraine. Last week Foggy Bottom indicated the MIGS to Ukraine would.... "not be an action endorsed by NATO."

This is the Biden administrations methof of saying, "not only no, but fok no."

This essentially means, NATO (will or may) NOT defend Polish air fields from Russian cruise missile attacks.

Not to be taken as fools, this week the Poles said, "no problem, we'll fly the MIGS to Ramstein Air Base and the US can send them to Ukraine." Now the kak sandwich is back on the Foggy Bottom and the feckless Biden administration.

I suspect we may very soon learn that the Germans have rejected any MIGS to Ukraine through Ramstein scheme. The Germans will NOT want Ramstein to become a MIG maintenance hub for the Ukrainian unpleasantness (no longer termed "WAR" by the UN). Can't blame the Poles. Can't blame the Germans.

Bidens henchmen betray everyone and everything they come in contact with to include the American citizen and taxpayer. I will be surprised if the Polish MIGS ever get to the Ukraine.

Posted by: Besoeker   2022-03-09 10:46  

#11  Ok .. a bit to hard to find here. Wish there were a way to hashtag your stuff
Do you have a twitter feed? Thx
Posted by: Hunter Bidens Laptop   2022-03-09 10:45  

#10  @badanov
If you have a better source of substantial info and in-depth military analysis, I'm all ears

Been posting it right along -- from both sides.
Posted by: badanov   2022-03-09 10:37  

#9  @badanov
If you have a better source of substantial info and in-depth military analysis, I'm all ears
Posted by: Hunter Bidens Laptop   2022-03-09 10:35  

#8  Russia is building camps to the north and northwest of Kyiv. They are bringing in supplies and troops. There are 3 small towns that the Russians will have to assault through to start the attack on the capital proper and that will be the beginning as well as a major artillery bombardment.

From a political point, it does seem that Putin is continuing to build up forces to force Ukraine to accept his demands and if they don't he can start the attack.

Russia is still lacking enough trucks to supply their forces quickly and attacks have reduced that number by a degree so the "stall"/"buildup" etc. might go on for a while.
Posted by: DarthVader   2022-03-09 10:31  

#7  Ok, my bad. But there's no link. Does "ISW" refer to these guys?

Their reports are basically a lot of speculation with almost daily cut-n-paste of variations on the theme of "no change in the last 24 hours." Plus that magic word favored by "expert" analysts these days, limited:

March 5: Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause

March 6: The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours.

March 7: It is too soon to gauge the likely effectiveness of any Russian attempt to complete the encirclement of Kyiv

March 8: ...Russian forces near Kyiv made limited gains and prepared for limited drives
Posted by: Hunter Bidens Laptop   2022-03-09 10:24  

#6  Even a careful read would tell you it's not really her thinking this up.

Russian ground lines of communication

encirclement



Posted by: Dron66046   2022-03-09 10:23  

#5  Ouch, badanov.
Posted by: trailing wife   2022-03-09 10:17  

#4  Who is this? Fakebook's resident military "expert"?

Here's this broad's bio from something called "PJ Media":
Clarice Feldman is a retired litigation lawyer who lives in D.C. She's a news junkie addicted to the internet

Maybe Clarice Feldman needs a trip to the detox center

Feldman cross-posted something from someone who is a military expert.

I understand the importance of sullying someone's reputation for the purpose of seizing a favorable narrative. But you can't do it if your reading comprehension is so poor.
Posted by: badanov   2022-03-09 10:03  

#3  Who is this? Fakebook's resident military "expert"?

Here's this broad's bio from something called "PJ Media":
Clarice Feldman is a retired litigation lawyer who lives in D.C. She's a news junkie addicted to the internet

Maybe Clarice Feldman needs a trip to the detox center
Posted by: Hunter Bidens Laptop    2022-03-09 09:45  

#2  you need a valium
Posted by: Chris   2022-03-09 09:39  

#1  How quickly El Narrativo changes. Just a cycle or two ago it was, "Haha, Russians Bogged Down!!" Now it's "Russians Encircle Kiev"

Tomorrow: "Zelensky Sues For Peace With Honor"
Posted by: No Fortunate Son   2022-03-09 04:05  

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