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| Russia's Invasion of Ukraine - day 12 of the War: Review, Analysis and Predictions |
| 2022-03-12 |
| This is a comprehensive explication of Russia's war on Ukraine and the West, from the tactical to the grand strategic level. Thanks to Facebook's Max Velocity for the link [Cartographer] As of Saturday, 7 March 2022, it has been 12 days since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. After a yearlong period of building up its forces along Ukraine’s borders, Russia has commenced on a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Within the first 12 days of the war Russian forces have advanced rapidly, but neither military nor political victory is within sight. The war has followed a largely predictable course with few major surprises, yet nevertheless the Russian war effort is unusual for a number of reasons. I would like give a recap of the war thus far with analysis, and offer predictions of how the war will play out going forward. BACKGROUND TO THE CONFLICT This war is the culmination of nearly a decade of Russian-Ukrainian tensions that began following the 2014 Maidan Revolution. The revolution brought to power a pro-Western, anti-Russian government in Kiev. The revolution caused grave fears in Russia that Ukraine would join NATO, and become a base for American military forces and their activities aimed against Russia. Russia’s immediate response was to seize the Crimean Peninsula and sponsor a war in the Donbass region between the Ukrainian government and Russian separatists. The 2015 Minsk II Agreement attempted to end the conflict with reforms to the Ukrainian constitution, but these reforms did not materialize. Ukraine continued and deepened its security relationship with the United States and NATO, while Russia became increasingly impatient and fearful of American influence over its neighbor. The Kremlin eventually ran out of patience it seems. Believing a diplomatic solution to be less and less likely, it began a massing of military forces along the Ukrainian border in the spring of 2021. In the winter of 2021 saw a further massing of forces near Ukraine, along with Russia issuing an ultimatum to NATO. Many of the demands were non-starters, for example, Russia demanded NATO to withdrawal its forces back to where they were stationed in 1997. January and February 2022 saw a continuing buildup of forces, including Russian military deployments to Belarus, to the north of Ukraine. By the middle of February, up to 200,000 Russian soldiers were assembled across the Ukrainian border. Following a weekend of a marked increase in fighting between Ukrainian and separatist forces in the Donbass, Russia announced the recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics on February 21st. Finally, in the early hours of the morning of February 24th Ukrainian border posts came under attack, followed by Russian missile strikes across Ukraine. Shortly afterwards Russian forces poured forth into Ukraine. Much more at the link. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #2 BL[not]UF my "plan A and plan B" hypothesis: The Russian forces in the first wave were expected to achieve one of two things. Either -accept the surrender of Ukrainian forces and occupy territory unopposed, or - if meeting Ukrainian resistance, they would serve to probe Ukrainian forces to see where their weak and strong points are. ^ nb. this analysis comports with what objective, Realist observers noticed from Day One of the invasion |
| Posted by: No Fortunate Son 2022-03-12 12:21 |
| #1 Best comprehensive analysis I have read, but its waaaayyyy long, so bring a snack! |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2022-03-12 12:10 |