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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Was China Betting on Russian Defeat All Along? |
| 2022-03-13 |
| [GeopoliticalMonitor] China has been seen by many as the most important ally of Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. However, after nearly two weeks of fighting, confusing episodes have been culminating around China’s attitude to the war. Regarding both the UN Security Council and General Assembly resolutions, China has abstained rather than voted on the side of Russia. Regarding the sanctions on Russia, China hasn’t shown much of a willingness to help thus far, and two major Chinese banks, the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have even refused to help Russia process export transactions. Instead of supporting Russia, Chinese minister of foreign affairs, Wang Yi has called for de-escalation of the conflict. China seems to be pulling back its’ support from Russia, everywhere from diplomacy to economics. On the other hand, however, Chinese statements right before the war seemed to have indicated Beijing’s full support for Moscow, and the fact that Russia waited for the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics seems to confirm rumors that Xi asked Putin to do so, indicating in turn that China was fully aware of what was coming, and decided to support it in full knowledge. Thus: Full support for the invasion before it started, but then a gradual pulling back once the invasion was underway — What’s going on here? Did China change its’ mind due to some unexpected occurrence? What if nothing such happened, but it was a consistent strategy to encourage Russia to attack at first, but roll back its’ support after the war has started? Knowing the history of Sino-Russian relations, a Russian victory doesn’t seem to be in China’s interest. What is in China’s interest is a prolonged war of attrition, draining Russia’s resources as much as possible, weakening it as much as possible, meanwhile isolating it from the West as much as possible, and with a Russian defeat at the end. Go read the whole thing. There's a neat map and stuff... |
| Posted by:Thing From Snowy Mountain |
| #1 A very neat map. A thought-provoking piece. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2022-03-13 21:49 |