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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| A New Diplomatic Off-Ramp for Russia |
| 2022-03-17 |
| [Politico] The war in Ukraine will end in some form. The longer it persists, the higher the costs to both Ukraine and Russia. Clearly a diplomatic solution is preferable, but it is difficult to identify a diplomatic construct that could provide a sufficient and face-saving off-ramp for Russia as well as the kind of security that Ukraine needs. The center of gravity of any negotiated settlement to this war will be the question of Ukraine’s status between the Western alliance and Russia. Russia will insist on a neutral Ukraine, not part of any military alliance that could conceivably threaten Russia. Ukraine, on the other hand, cannot possibly agree simply to declare itself neutral, at the mercy of its neighbor, as Russia demands. If there is an acceptable diplomatic formula to end this war, it would need to involve some secure form of Ukrainian neutrality and an open path for Ukraine toward its democratic and economic aspirations in the European Union. Most proposals involve commitments for Ukraine to never join NATO or to commit not to do so for some specified time. That may be acceptable to Russia, but would leave a de facto neutral Ukraine without any reassurance in the aftermath of a devastating invasion and no obvious way to pursue an economic and political alignment with the West. But there’s a present-day model for this kind of balancing: Austria. As part of a deal to end Allied occupation in 1955, the Soviet Union recognized Austria’s sovereignty and Austria pledged permanent military neutrality — it would not join NATO, and it would not allow foreign troops to be stationed on its territory. But at the same time, Austria was free to chart its own economic and political course. That deal has held to this day: Neutral Austria joined the European Union in 1995, including, subsequently, the Union’s Schengen free travel area and the eurozone. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #5 Get the old Warsaw pact to drop out of NATO and become swiss-style neutral alliance with that can be a buffer between the Germans and the Russian bear (who seems easily terrified). Then get this new Pseudo Warsaw Pact to send troops to Africa to end Boka Haram and other troublemakers. This will make the world a better place and provide necessary experience. |
| Posted by: ruprecht 2022-03-17 11:28 |
| #4 If there isn't an actual diplomatic solution in the next few weeks, They're already talking about war with Russia. Hal Brands in Bloomberg today, Harris's loose talk, Zelensky saying WWIII's "already started" |
| Posted by: Ebboter Theremble4880 2022-03-17 08:02 |
| #3 Like COVID, the current crisis must end well enough before the midterms for the dems to claim that they had a win and need to be re-elected. If there isn't an actual diplomatic solution in the next few weeks, watch for the media to sbruptly lose interest around the 4th of July and all the bandwagon pols in DC to immediately follow suit. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2022-03-17 07:57 |
| #2 there’s a present-day model for this kind of balancing: Austria. As part of a deal to end Allied occupation in 1955, the Soviet Union recognized Austria’s sovereignty and Austria pledged permanent military neutrality — it would not join NATO, and it would not allow foreign troops to be stationed on its territory. If Zelensky had accepted this (or the US had forced him to accept this on pain of another US instigated coup in Ukraine), Putin would not have invaded. This was his core demand. Instead Zelensky said he wanted to go on the offensive and conquer Crimea |
| Posted by: Shelet Poodle2343 2022-03-17 05:42 |
| #1 The war in Ukraine will end in some form. Maybe not. Been going on for 8 years already in Donbass. About 10,000 dead between the coup in 2014 and end of 2021 |
| Posted by: Guillibaldo Chong4167 2022-03-17 05:37 |