Commentary by Russian military blogger Andrey Chervonets
April 11, 19:01
American Version
According to the Pentagon, Russia has 55 battalion tactical groups in the south, almost all of them deployed to Ukraine. There are 20 BTGs in the north, of which about half are in Ukraine. Two BTGs have recently appeared north of Luhansk and east of Kharkov.
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More from Andrey Chervonets:
Russia almost finished preparing for an offensive operation in the Donbass
Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to regroup troops for the offensive
According to the speaker of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, the Russian army is completing preparations for the transition to new active actions, building up the control system and logistics in the Izyum and Donetsk directions.
The main goals, according to the speaker of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the RF Armed Forces at this stage are as follows:
- - Preparation for the defeat of the group participating in the operation of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass;
- - Establishing full control over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions;
- - Ensuring a sustainable land corridor with Crimea.
P.S:
According to Ukrainian sources, Mi-6s have provided Zelensky's office with new data on the second phase of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine. Now the Kremlin is not going to stop at the recognition of the LDNR and Crimea, but they want to occupy the entire left-bank Ukraine. For this, Russia is preparing a big cauldron for Ukrainian troops in the Donbass.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have created a large strike force of about 90,000 people, which is constantly growing, with military equipment now all the roads in the second echelon - in the Voronezh region are clogged. The Armed Forces of Ukraine also collects all reserves. To counteract the Ukrainian side, a grouping was formed in the Dnepropetrovsk region, numbering about 80,000 people.
The group created by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has many mobilized, but it has a lot of modern weapons that are supplied to Ukraine by the West. The contour of the encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass is expected along the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region - 40-50 km east of Pavlograd. This will allow the Russian army to quickly surround the group in the Donbass and methodically clean it up, as was already done with ISIS in Syria.
The strengths of the Russian Federation now are: air superiority, motivated units of the L/DPR, strategic initiative, the ability to continuously launch missile strikes.
The downside for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is that there are 170-180 km between Kramatorsk and the nearest large city of Pavlograd, and only small towns remain between them, which will not become a big obstacle for the Russian army. This will not allow the Ukrainian side to use its traditional tactics - to use artillery behind the civilian population of large cities, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine used to do in the vicinity of Kyiv, Kharkov and Nikolaev.
The beginning of the active phase can be expected after the active phase of cleaning up the city from the remnants of Ukrainian units in Mariupol, some of which, in all likelihood, will simply be docked at Azovstal.