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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Russia: Prepping for the Next War - Peter Zeihan
2022-06-15
[MaineCoastTV] Russian President Vladimir Putin has given another of his...heavy-on-the-revisionist-history speeches. This time, he categorized the Great Northern War--the 18th century conflict that saw the Tsardom of Russia successfully challenge Sweden for Baltic superiority--as one where Russia "reclaimed" such territories as Estonia and Latvia. As with Moscow's claims that places like Ukraine have always been a part of Russia, this is just simply not true.

But reality isn't the point. Or rather, the Russian president is delivering a Russian "reality" to the bulk of the Russian people. This is primarily an insular conversation, where a strongman is trying to justify a war of expansion. But it also sends a warning to a Sweden and Finland that have already moved ahead to join NATO: we have beaten you in the past, we consider much of your neighborhood as properly our own, and don't sleep too comfortably in your beds at night.

The latter might be a projection of Putin's, or Russia's, strategic anxieties but that doesn't mean we should dismiss them out of hand. As seen in the graphic from my first book below, the Russia of today is not what we'd consider geographically secure. It is not an island power detached from mainland squabbles like Japan or the United Kingdom. Nor is it a mountain fortress like Iran. Russia is a vast territory--difficult and expensive to secure--and its more densely populated western core features multiple invasion routes for those who would be so inclined.



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Posted by:DarthVader

#9   But no one wants to invade Russia -- its full of Russians.

Yeah, and they remember what all those Russians did to Napoleon and Hitler. So now it's no surprise if Russians think of NATO as the 21st Century version of wannabe conquerors from the West. And you think that just because Joe Biden says it ain't so that it ain't?

Face it, folks, it's been dirty for dirty for centuries and Russians are not the only ones with a history of aggression. Too bad we can't just get along.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2022-06-15 14:26  

#8  ^Ditto that #7. Well put.
Posted by: Dale   2022-06-15 14:05  

#7  That’s been one of my primary take aways from the Ukrainian conflict. On both sides - one train line is barely adequate for supplying defense but two train lines operating fuel an advance. Not much change from WW2 if you study logistics from that period. Trucks simply can’t transport enough POL, munitions and armor to REMAB sites to establish critical mass for an offense
Posted by: Slenter Panda4300   2022-06-15 12:39  

#6  Our former NATO assigned troops could be put to very good use along the Mexican border.

Tip to the Euro's and our former NATO allies; keep an eye on the Russian rail system. If they are coming your way, it appears they'll be arriving via train. Just something I recently noticed.


Posted by: Besoeker   2022-06-15 06:52  

#5  Dissolve NATO. Period.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-06-15 06:50  

#4  Dissolve NATO and reconstitute without Turkey
Posted by: Frank G   2022-06-15 06:46  

#3  Well, I mean, everyone from from Tom Freidman to Tony Fauxi says we should be more like china. Who's gonna argue with experts like those?

/sarc
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-06-15 04:21  

#2  " Sweden and Finland that have already moved ahead to join NATO" Turkey threw a wrench into that one.Russia and China are vast territories. I don't see media attacks on the leadership of China of cancer, mental instability or delusions of world conquest when China is the bugger here in this day and age.
Posted by: Dale   2022-06-15 04:16  

#1  But no one wants to invade Russia -- its full of Russians.
Posted by: Rob Crawford   2022-06-15 00:06  

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