Commentary by Russian blogger Donetsk
[DonRF] Lev Removich, who I respect , undoubtedly knows history well, better than I do. And his irony about thebarn is understandable, I would still be ironic in a different way, given the progress of more than a week of active fighting. I could, but I won't. Because our Verdun has two dimensions - military and political.
In the military dimension, everything is clear - the enemy has a numerical advantage, we have an artillery advantage. The goals are limited, both for them and for us. As a result, battles take place in narrow sections of the front, where we, having a large number of guns, are trying to break open long-term defenses without using a lot of infantry. The enemy, having lost positions, brings reserves into battle and counterattacks. So it happened with Seversk, so it happened with Peski. So it was at Lisichansk/Severodonetsk.
As a result, it turns out that - to take a little, it is necessary to keep it. Infantry is needed to hold, and infantry is scarce. It is not enough of it consciously - the Russian Federation does not participate in hostilities, the Russian Federation is conducting a special military operation - a special military operation. In the country itself (except for the Borderlands) there is peace and quiet, people are busy with their own affairs.
The goals are limited: the calculation for the exhaustion of the enemy with further access to the peace agreement. I'm not saying that this is good or bad, these are the realities. And in fact, from what I know, it partially works. Coffins are being sent to the West, reserves from the large bases of the former Red Banner Carpathian Military District have been removed and sent to the Donbas direction. They trade holding territory for corpses. And with a certain perseverance, sooner or later their defense will be crushed.
True, there are nuances - even if the goals of the first phase are fulfilled, namely, by occupying the suburbs of Donetsk and Artemovsk with Soledar, the problem will not be solved. Furthermore. They themselves estimate their mob potential at 1.5 million people, of which 700-800 thousand have joined the ranks. That is, we run the risk of getting a long chain of Verdun, for the wear of suitcases and the depletion of warehouses. Moreover, the position is there:
Russia will close the possibility for further negotiations with Ukraine and Western countries in the event of holding referendums on the territory of the regions under its control. This was stated by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in a video message published on his official Telegram channel.
It is unambiguous, and it already worked once when the referendums were put on hold in the spring. But spring is, God bless it, the main thing is something else - having 1.5 million motivated (more by the prospect of a prison term or a chance to become a combat dog ... som) meat, supported by NATO artillery, albeit in small quantities, and a means of influencing our rear (HIMARS), they will fight to the extreme. And with poverty in the infantry, we should not expect big operations. Only local. The end result is a dead end. Long battles to grind reserves - advance - a new operation of the same type. For months each. Until they break down.
This is exactly what happened in the LPR, this is what is happening in the DPR. And no mobilization -- excuse me, the call of "volunteers" -- in the Republics will help. All who knew how and we wanted already. And there are few people left in the Republics. Otherwise ... I can only join in the chuckle at the "alarmist" Strelkov, which I thought of - to prohibit the dismissal of military personnel for the duration of the NWO, and to mobilize at least specialists.
It's funny ... Just like the bridges across the Dnieper, and the notorious decision-making centers. Meanwhile, in the DPR, the number of civilians killed due to shelling yesterday was four. And 17 were wounded. A total of 29 people suffered from Lepestkov.