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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Ukraine crossed the Oskil river |
| 2022-09-15 |
| [YouTube] |
| Posted by:DarthVader |
| #11 Do not forget that Belarus was approaching the edge of a Maiden-style coup until Lukashcenko clamped down and the west did nothing. Declaring war against their neighbor would risk collapse. And right about now, the Belarus military may be looking at their weapons systems, looking at what happened to the people using them in the Ukraine, and considering the possibility of a similar outcome, without stocks of spares like Russia has. Not to mention the infiltration and partisan actions that have already occurred in Belarus, plus the orientation of their military is more E to W. More rail and highway run that way than into the south. As the Russians found out, there are few good logistical routes from Belarus into Ukraine, and they can all be interdicted rapidly. Plus they have to worry about NATO directly on their border, especially Poland with whom they share a long frontier. A quick offensive by Ukraine to the east of Brest could isolate and cost them a major city and transportation hub and it is relatively close to the border. And the supply lines from Poland and German are very close by for Ukr to reinforce any Ukr W to east counterattack to cut the invaders off on a line from Pinsk to Mazyr and down to Chernobyl, following the south bank of the Pripyat river. At a minimum, thy bridges there could be taken down and anything to the south (the invasion force) could be logistically cut off. All in all, Lukashenko would have to be a fool to chance such an attack in current conditions. |
| Posted by: Chealing Chomotle4158 2022-09-15 20:41 |
| #10 If Belarus didn't jump in when Russia was on the edge of Kyiv, why would it now? Lukashenko has to know that if he gives that order, he's putting his life on the line. Good chance the army turns on him, and if not a good chance Ukraine defeats it, and they won't have the same qualms about crossing the Belarusian border as they do the Russian. They even have some companies of Belarussian expats to lead the way to Minsk. |
| Posted by: Nero 2022-09-15 19:18 |
| #9 Leaving Belarus 'Neutral' has been the choice. After the faux neutrality involved in the abortive attempted encirclement of Kiev, I mean. 'Maybe the will maybe they won't' has tied down Ukrainian reserves on the Belarus border at little cost to Russia. Can Putin coerce Belarus into attacking? Certainly it looks like the people of Belarus have even less interest in Putin's [Excrement] show than the average Russian. |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-09-15 17:16 |
| #8 Mobilization and/or dragooning Belarus into actively fighting. |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-09-15 17:10 |
| #7 The Russian military in Ukraine is a spent force. They don't have the manpower anymore to keep holding onto the huge swaths of territory they took. Recruiting is down, they don't have much modern gear left and Ukraine is only getting stronger with western weapons and fully trained troops by the British hitting the lines. Russia can't wait until Fall major mud comes to play and winter quiets things down a bit. They can then do a rebuild of what they can for the spring. This is very much like WWII when it comes to military strength. The Russians are like the axis, militarily very powerful, but not much staying power for a long war. Ukraine weak in the beginning, but can shepherd more trained troops and equipment from the west as time goes on. Ukraine will get stronger while the strength of the bear weakens as it is spent. Unless Russia goes full hog and calls for complete mobilization, they have lost. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2022-09-15 16:16 |
| #6 Wanting the unthinkable to happen has been six months of life goal for a lot of cheerleaders. Except, they now have up their Autumn Sportsball colors instead of the Blue and Gold. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2022-09-15 15:18 |
| #5 I suspect the RU's are all washed up, unless they do the unthinkable, then all bets are off. The atomic players to watch are FR and the UK. I doubt Biden or his shadow government would do anything....unless Arlington or Crystal City is struck. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2022-09-15 14:58 |
| #4 At a casual look: the Ukrainians penetrated and then rolled up the Russian Main Supply Route (MSR) like a combine threshing a wheat field. The Russians at that point decided to retreat, get tactical distance so they could regroup and then "sit down and have a think" about the next step. Are the Russians defeated? No. Embarrassed? Definitely. |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-09-15 14:31 |
| #3 They keep this up and they may have to field the last T-35. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2022-09-15 14:08 |
| #2 1) Some guy suggested assuming incompetence before conspiracy. 2) Full mobilization will run into the problem of lack of half-way decent equipment. (Here's your T-62, tovarisch, good luck!) Leaving hundreds of somewhat modern units behind in Kharkiv doesn't help that at all. |
| Posted by: Nero 2022-09-15 13:58 |
| #1 They crossed that with SpecOps seizing bridges in the first day or so of the advance to isolate the battle space to the west. It appears they ended up using those bridges as bridgeheads for the exploitation phase of the attack. The Russian collapse or retreat is exceedingly odd behavior. Almost as if they are deliberately losing control and allowing the cannon-fodder units to get chewed up (mostly easterners and Chechens). A pretense perhaps for full military mobilization and invasion? |
| Posted by: Chealing Chomotle4158 2022-09-15 13:54 |