by Vladimir Vasiliev
[REGNUM] The speedy achievement of victory on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR requires a comprehensive and integrated approach: both increasing the number of troops and expanding the range of targets and geography for our long-range fire weapons.
On September 17, 2022, a meeting of the Military Committee of the North Atlantic Alliance was held in Tallinn. In his statement at a press conference after the conclusion of this event, the chairman of this NATO body, Admiral Rob Bauer, voiced an interesting fact.
According to Bauer, "there are 3.2 million military personnel and women (more to come soon) who will do everything possible to protect every inch of Allied territory and every one of the 1 billion citizens living in Allied territory."
The phrase "become more" is directly related to the upcoming accession to NATO of Finland with its armed forces of 23,800 people and Sweden - 14,600 people.
To this should be added the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, actually operating under the direct control of NATO, about 700,000 people. Together it turns out 3.94 million people.
Since November 2017, the authorized strength of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has been set at 1,013,628 military personnel. From January 1, 2023, it should be increased by 137,000 to 1,150,628 military. Thus, comparing today the RF Armed Forces and the combined NATO Armed Forces + Armed Forces of Ukraine, we get a numerical superiority on the part of the alliance and its allied forces in Europe by 3.42 times. This corresponds to an offensive ratio of 3.42 to 1.
So far, the enemy has thrown 700,000 people of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against us - only 18 percent of the total. It should also be noted that the Russian group in the zone of a special military operation on the territory of the former. The Ukrainian SSR has an estimated 150,000-200,000 people with a front line length of more than 1,500 kilometers.
It is not surprising that during the recent counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region, our enemy was able to create a numerical superiority of seven to eight times in some areas, which largely determined the withdrawal of our troops from this region.
Let's add one more challenge here - the imminent formal entry into NATO of Finland and Sweden, this procedure is at the final stage. The common border of Russia with the North Atlantic Alliance will increase by the length of the Russian-Finnish border of 1,325.8 kilometers. It must be assumed that the regular increase in the RF Armed Forces from January 1, 2022 by 137,000 people is largely due to this fact.
But the partial mobilization announced on September 21, 2022 is directly related to the situation in the NVO zone. As Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu explained, the call for 300,000 reservists is necessary to control the 1,000-kilometer line of contact and the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR, liberated from the Kyiv Nazi regime. We add that it is necessary to cover the border line from the side of the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions.
How is the number of reservists for partial mobilization determined? Three factors play a major role here. The first is the needs of the front. The second is the ability of the Russian Defense Ministry and the Russian military-industrial complex to equip so many people with weapons, military equipment and everything else. The third is the ability to train and combat coordination of replenished and newly created subunits and units.
According to military expert Vladislav Shurygin, five full-fledged army corps can be formed out of 300,000 people. To equip them, you need at least 500 tanks, 500 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, about 1000 guns and mortars, as well as several thousand vehicles and thousands more tons of various equipment. We believe that this is not a complete list.
As Yury Baranchik, editor-in-chief of the analytical editorial office of IA REGNUM, notes in his telegram channel, “in theory, we had time to maximize the territory of the eastern and central former. Ukrainian SSR, pushing Ukrainians to Lviv and five to even regions in the west of the former. Ukrainian SSR, and lock them up there. So far it hasn't worked. One of the reasons, again inherited from the "blessed" 90s, is the insufficient number of ground forces - only 280,000.
Let me remind you that during the Great Patriotic War, only for offensive operations on the territory of such a republic as the Ukrainian SSR, from 500 thousand to 2 million people were required. And how much more was needed to maintain order in the liberated territories?
I will give just three examples.
During the Donbass operation (August 13 - September 22, 1943), the Red Army completely cleared the Donbass of the Nazis and began to push them beyond the Dnieper. The forces of the parties were significant: the USSR - 1 million people, 21,000 guns, 1,257 tanks, 1,400 aircraft. Germany has 540 thousand people, 5,400 guns, 900 tanks, 1,100 aircraft.
Chernigov-Poltava operation (August 26 - September 30, 1943). The forces of the parties: the USSR - 1.6 million people, 1,200 tanks and self-propelled guns, 30,300 guns and mortars, 690 rocket launchers, 1,450 aircraft. Germany - 700,000 people, 1,200 tanks and self-propelled guns, 7,200 guns, St. 900 aircraft. Losses: USSR - 427,952 people. Germany - 321,000 people.
Dnieper-Carpathian operation or the battle for the Right Bank of the Ukrainian SSR (December 24, 1943 - April 17, 1944). The forces of the parties: the USSR - 2 million people, 31,530 guns and mortars, 1,908 tanks and self-propelled guns, 2370 aircraft. Germany - 1.8 million people, 21,820 guns and mortars, 2,200 tanks and assault guns, 1,560 aircraft. Losses: USSR - 270,198 irretrievable (839,330 sanitary), Germany - 500,000 people.
The scale is clear."
By the way, Russia has a significant human resource to increase the size of its armed forces. According to Sergei Shoigu, the total mobilization resource reaches 25 million people.
However, the leadership of the Russian state is taking very balanced steps in this direction. The stability of our country in the confrontation with the West will be largely determined by the stability of the economy and the productivity of the defense industry. Therefore, we do not need an excessive number of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, since it will be a heavy burden on the state and will withdraw significant labor resources from the economic sphere.
In the published decree of the President of Russia “On the announcement of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation” dated September 21, 2022, the number of reservists called up is not disclosed. 300 thousand in his explanation was called by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu.
At the same time, it must be understood that in the event of a further aggravation of the military-political situation and an increase in the level of military danger, the parameters of the call for partial mobilization may be increased. The ratio of the strength of the RF Armed Forces to the strength of NATO and its allies in Europe was given above. But there are still Far Eastern allies of the United States in the face of Japan and South Korea.
By the way, according to some military experts, for a decisive and quick victory over the former Ukrainian SSR, without stretching for years, up to 1 million people at the front and at least several hundred thousand people for military production and transport facilities will be required.
One should take into account the important fact that the RF Armed Forces currently have a serious advantage in long-range fire destruction. We can destroy targets to the depth of the entire territory of the former. Ukrainian SSR. And this advantage in the course of SVO is realized to a limited extent.
The entire former Ukrainian SSR has been turned by the West into a weapon against Russia, and the sooner this weapon is broken, the sooner our victory will be. There is such a thing - disorganization of the work of the control system and the rear of the enemy.
Infliction of intensive strikes on decision-making centers in the territory b. The Ukrainian SSR, both in Kyiv and in the regions, in terms of its transport, energy, fuel infrastructure, communication systems, data centers will allow us to achieve our goals much faster. However, the window of opportunity for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to carry out such activities is gradually decreasing as the Armed Forces of Ukraine are saturated with Western-made air defense, missile defense and fire destruction systems.
By the way, the defeat of the administrative and rear infrastructure of the Kyiv
Thus, the speedy achievement of victory on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR requires a comprehensive and integrated approach: both increasing the number of troops and expanding the range of targets and geography for our long-range fire weapons.
September 24, 2022