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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Iranian Drones and Russian Desperation-Peter Zeihan
2022-10-20
Russia's reliance on Iran for armed drones and missiles is a resounding fall from grace for the one-time defense manufacturing rival to the United States. And a telling indicator of not only just how far the Russians have fallen, but how few reliable friends Moscow has left. It is also a stunning reversal in leverage for Putin, who for decades has used his ability to lean on Tehran (especially when it comes to US-Iranian spats) as a tool against Washington, DC.

Beyond the geopolitical intrigue, the shoddiness of Iranian tech underscores the determination of Russian leadership to inflict as much pain and damage to Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure as possible. Iranian drones are unreliable, loud, and easily shot down. Russia has to overcompensate by sending small swarms all at once to take out their intended targets--many of which are residential areas, train stations, and power infrastructure. Really hard to accidentally target any of these over a half-dozen times...
Posted by:DarthVader

#11  🎼 Roasting chestnuts on an open fire
Jack Frost nipping at your nads…

Ukraine Rations Power and Warns of Lethal Winter
Posted by: Ebbilet Glomoth9463   2022-10-20 20:50  

#10  A really cheap drone designed to shred the incoming drones in the air is all you need.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-10-20 17:55  

#9  I would expect that directed energy beam defenses will become the standard anti-Drone disrupting weapons.

Why do you think all the newer US ships have such a huge energy budget that is only 50% used currently? The laser anti-missile LaWS (which can be used on drones, small ships, etc.) will be on those and deployed on those through next year. It is already being deployed on other ships and had a great test run in the Persian Gulf in 2014.
Posted by: DarthVader   2022-10-20 16:35  

#8  I would expect that directed energy beam defenses will become the standard anti-Drone disrupting weapons. Once purchased, you only pay for the crews and juice
Posted by: Frank G   2022-10-20 16:31  

#7  these drones are super cheap to replace at $20K a pop.
David P Goldman’s reliable sources report that the actual cost is just $1,000 a pop.

Don't think they are that cheap, but they are dirt cheap compared to western drones. Even if they cost $20k a pop, how much is it to replace an electric substation? 800K? Some big ones cost over $10 million. Even with 10 drones lost to take it out Russia comes out ahead. But also at the same time blowing through $500k in missiles is worth it to protect something that expensive.
Posted by: DarthVader   2022-10-20 15:54  

#6  Ha - quite right, M. Nice one 👍🏻
Posted by: Billy B   2022-10-20 14:27  

#5  It costs the Ukrainians US taxpayer up to $100k for each drone they the Ukrainians shoot down.

FIFY
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-10-20 14:19  

#4  The cost-benefit ratio is on the order of 100:1 in favor of the Russians.

It costs the Ukrainians up to $100k for each drone they shoot down. This is because, by their own admission, they’re expending incredibly expensive sledgehammers to bat away mosquitoes:

“Ukraine has deployed a host of weaponry to bring down the drones, including MiG-29 jets, C-300 cruise missiles, Nasams ground defence systems and small-arms fire.


“The estimated cost to Ukraine [over just four days] stands at more than $28.14m (£25m), according to the analysis, which is based on open sources. The data includes drones launched between 13 September and 17 October.”
Posted by: Billy B   2022-10-20 13:33  

#3  Ask a RC plane hobbyist how far $1K goes. Not far enough to deliver 250 lb. bombs or air to surface missiles.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-10-20 13:20  

#2   these drones are super cheap to replace at $20K a pop.

David P Goldman’s reliable sources report that the actual cost is just $1,000 a pop.

David P. Goldman
@davidpgoldman
I'm told reliably that the Iranian suicide drones cost about $1,000 apiece -- cardboard airframe, a motor the size of a sewing machine, and some cheap electronics. Costliest component is a 75kg charge. The Russians can make as many of them as they want.
Posted by: Billy B   2022-10-20 13:15  

#1  "Iranian drones are unreliable, loud, and easily shot down."

All the whitepapers I've read on 'drone swarms' -- most countries are not going to swarm a target with 20 $100M drones. You swarm with cheap drones with an understanding that you'll lose many, but the whole point is to overwhelm defenses to hit and take out the target.

Which RUS has done successfully enough as 1/3 of UKR infrastructure --power/water-- is offline. And these drones are super cheap to replace at $20K a pop.

Meanwhile - RUS hypersonic weapons, nuclear tsunami and ground based to space lasers are fairly advanced.
Posted by: mossomo   2022-10-20 13:09  

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