[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- RUMORS CIRCULATE AMONG PRO-RESISTANCE GROUPS OF US ASSISTANCE TO THE TALIBAN IN BADAKHSHAN (DRONES/INTEL) – A select few pro-Resistance social media sites have begun sharing opinions that the US is somehow aiding the Taliban in the fight against the NRF with drones and intelligence. We have received confirmation from multiple sources in the USG that these claims are nonsense. Sources in a neighboring country who are monitoring the situation scoffed at the idea and suggested the stories are being planted by pro-Taliban or pro-ISIS-K supporters. One video that had been circulated on a pro-Resistance social media site that purportedly depicted US drones launching Hellfire missiles at an NRF base in Badakhshan actually had a date/time stamp of March 2009 on it. Our analysis indicates these claims are merely rumors and may have been started with malicious intent.
- BADAKHSHAN FIGHTING BEGINS AGAIN – Shortly after the Taliban’s victory lap announcement about victory in Badakhshan was made, the NRF reportedly launched multiple assaults in three Districts of the Province. While reports are slow to filter out of the areas affected, fighting has been noted in Shif, Raghistan, and the Kafir Dareh regions with additional clashes in several unidentified locations. It appears the Taliban’s announcements may have been presumptive. Some sources opined the Taliban were quick to claim victory to calm China’s nerves.
- FORMER AFGHAN COMMANDOS RECEIVING RECRUITMENT REQUESTS TO FIGHT FOR RUSSIA IN UKRAINE – While we had previously reported on this rumor, it now appears to be confirmed and is running in several regional news sites in Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It is not clear how many former Commandos have opted to take the offer and no reporting out of Ukraine has confirmed the participation of any Commandos on the Russian lines as of yet. However, with the tectonic pace of resettlement efforts and dire economic conditions facing Afghan refugee communities, it is believed that some may be forced to join up simply to feed their families.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Badakhshan: Resistance forces reportedly launched several attacks in Shif, Raghistan, and Kafir Dareh areas of the province. Fighting has reputedly been fierce, a source saying the attacks were prompted by the Taliban’s preemptive declaration of victory un the province, Numerous casualties are said to have been taken on both sides, but an accurate count is not yet available.
NEXT 24 HOURS
TAKHAR, PANJSHIR, BAGHLAN, AND BADAKHSHAN LIKELY TO SEE FRESH FIGHTING – The Resistance Coalition is said to have planned multiple attacks and raids across the four Provinces for the next two weeks. The pressure taken off Panjshir over the last 3 weeks is said to have allowed for significant time to resupply and rearm the forces in the main bases there and some tactical prepositioning is thought to have been completed as of yesterday. We expect to see several light engagements at the outset which will develop into more moderate and heavy fighting scenarios in each of the different Provinces as the weekend approaches. Travel will be hazardous.
Daily Evacuation Brief | October 25, 2022[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- BADAKHSHAN FIGHTING REPORTEDLY CONCLUDES – The Taliban took a victory lap of their operation in Badakhshan by claiming the fighting had concluded and that 38 NRF fighters had been killed and 78 had been arrested. The Taliban claimed that only 3 of their fighters had been killed and 5 wounded. Few analysts believe the numbers are accurate and both sides in the conflict continue to inflate the body counts while minimizing losses. The NRF has yet to respond to the Taliban assertions but there have been no reports of fighting in the Province over the last twenty-four hours.
- MORE RUMORS OF IRAN RECRUITING FORMER ANA FOR SERVICE IN UKRAINE – Unconfirmed reports continue to come out of Iran claiming the Iranian Republic is registering former Afghan military personnel and offering them a chance to serve in Ukraine. Putin has repeatedly claimed that former Afghan Special Forces soldiers are fighting against his troops so, the rumors could potentially be credible. However, until confirmation is received it is far more likely the rumors are being used to inspire anti-regime sentiment in Iran. Iran, for its part, has rekindled claims that the US is conducting a proxy war campaign in Afghanistan aimed at minimizing Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence.
- SUPREME LEADER REORDERS TALIBAN TO TURN IN CONFISCATED/PERSONAL WEAPONS – In a bid to reduce arms sales across the country, the Supreme Leader reissued an order signed 30 days prior for Taliban members and gun dealers to turn weapons over to the Treasury (Baitu Mal) immediately. It is believed that neighboring states have called on the Taliban repeatedly to enforce smuggling bans.
- MORE CLASHES BETWEEN KUCHIS AND HAZARAS IN NANGARHAR – Forced evictions of Hazara families were enforced by local Taliban security forces in the Bihsud District were reported. Approximately 20 families were forced from their homes and the property was given to Kuchi families. Many analysts agree the practice will result in decades of violence, as it has in other parts of the world.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Baghlan: A NRF platoon surprised a Taliban outpost, reportedly killing 4 and maiming 2 in an attack near Farghanbal in Khost district.
Takhar: A late attack by NRF forces on a Taliban concentration of security forces was said to have resulted in 10 Taliban killed, including an unnamed commander, and 8 maimed. The NRF admitted losing 1 fighter and two maimed.
NEXT 24 HOURS
PAKISTAN HAS ELEVATED THE SECURITY LEVEL IN ISLAMABAD – Several hundred Pakistani Special Forces troops have reportedly been recalled to the capitol over the last twenty-four hours. Accounts differ as to the purpose of their mission. Initial sources claim they will be establishing checkpoints along thoroughfares frequented by Afghan nationals in the city to check documents. A secondary source claims that intelligence gleaned from captured cell phones during fighting along the border earlier in the week indicates several pro-TTP cells may be operating within the capitol. The source specifically cited several WhatsApp groups that were discovered, two of which mentioned a potential bomb attack. Both sources indicated the current government was attempting to implicate ousted PM Khan in the situation out of political expediency. The tactic could draw his supporters in and escalate a volatile situation. We have yet to receive reports of similar security postures being adopted in other Pakistan cities hosting large numbers of Afghan refugees. RECOMMENDATION: At-risk Afghans are encouraged to avoid going out until the situation becomes clearer and the threat has passed.