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China-Japan-Koreas
Taiwan invasion would be 'dangerous game' for China, top US general warns
2022-11-17
[NYPOST] The Pentagon’s highest-ranking officer warned China off a potential invasion of Taiwan, emphasizing Wednesday that such a move would be a "dangerous game" for Beijing, especially given its military’s lack of fighting experience.

"For someone who has a military that hasn’t fought in combat since fighting the Vietnamese in 1979, they would be playing a very, very dangerous game to cross the [Taiwan] Strait and invade the island of Taiwan," said Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "They don’t have the experience, the background to do it. They haven’t trained to it yet."

Calling Chinese President Xi Jinping "a rational actor," Milley said he did not believe Beijing would attempt to invade Taiwan soon, as President Biden has signaled the US would come to the island nation’s aid should its self-governance be threatened.

"I think he evaluates things on cost-benefit risk, and I think that he would conclude that an attack on Taiwan in the near future [would] be an excessive amount of risk and would end in a strategic debacle for the Chinese military," the general said of Xi. "It would throw off their ’China Dream’ of being the number one economic and military power."

Xi has made "reunification" with Taiwan his primary goal. The United States adheres to a so-called "One China" policy, which acknowledges China’s claims of illusory sovereignty over the island, but considers its status unsettled.

Posted by:Fred

#9  Quick look at the invasion beach locations:

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1313151964826333197/photo/1

Bloomberg link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/toaster/v2/charts/2a1fb12a801548c0971a9eb0c0e43f52.html?brand=politics&webTheme=light&web=true&hideTitles=true
Posted by: NoMoreBS   2022-11-17 14:50  

#8  Good idea #6
Posted by: Chris   2022-11-17 14:05  

#7  May and October are the best windows for invasion. The skies are fairly clear and the ocean fairly calm. China would have to finish the invasion in 30 days for each window before iffy weather becomes a real possibility again. Combine that with a decent moon and best tidal times you can narrow down the invasion date each year pretty well.
Posted by: DarthVader   2022-11-17 13:56  

#6  Bomb the three gorges dam as soon as they start anything.
Posted by: Sloluger Crusomble4225   2022-11-17 13:50  

#5  China can much less afford a bad result of any action they take than Russia has.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-11-17 13:15  

#4  https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/taiwan

I'm guessing February is the optimal period for cross channel naval blockage and invasion sustainment by sea and air. The added benefit for that period is the political distraction/chaos of the new House of Representatives bloviations and initial PR efforts.

The South China Sea has a predominately tropical climate, dictated by two monsoons that are characterized by their direction of airflow. The Northeast monsoon is active in the winter months of November to March, while during the summer between May and September the Southwest monsoon is active.
Posted by: NoMoreBS   2022-11-17 13:08  

#3  His friends are not where they need to be for an invasion today, but I bet he has plans to get them where they need to be.
Posted by: Super Hose   2022-11-17 12:55  

#2  Yeah.. I bet Miley spends hours each day in front of the mirror practicing misgendering people.
Armed with a 12-page book of inappropriate pronouns. Xi better watch out this guy is serious!
Posted by: CrazyFool   2022-11-17 07:34  

#1  ...On the one hand, if GEN Milley told me the sky was blue, I would take a team of trusted NCOs out to confirm it.

On the other hand, he's right. So is a stopped clock twice a day, but there it is. Trouble is that Milley's actions in the past, and the demonstrated military incompetence the Biden Administration have shown, has done nothing to convince the PRC that that they shouldn't do this.

Xi believes he has a clear path to pull this off, and even if we can somehow muster the forces to stop it, he's betting he can absorb the casualties on the one hand, while still taking Taiwan out of the game for an indefinite period of time.


Mike
Posted by: MikeKozlowski   2022-11-17 06:50  

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