[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- PAKISTAN / AFGHANISTAN TRADE BLOWS AT BORDER – Border security forces traded artillery and heavy mortar fire on Sunday near the Spin Boldak-Chaman crossing. Taliban officials claimed Pakistani security forces had crossed into Afghan territory to repair fencing and the situation escalated. Pakistan has reported that 7 people were killed (6 non-combatants, and 1 Army soldier) and that over 30 non-combatants are gravely injured. Afghanistan reported 3 deaths (1 Taliban fighter, and 2 non-combatants) and approximately 10 wounded. Both sides have rushed reinforcements to the border and more are expected to arrive today. Pakistan has deployed units of self-propelled, long-range artillery to reinforce the border around Chaman. Taliban reinforcements have consisted of truck-borne light infantry units. The border crossing is currently closed to all traffic and local eyewitnesses have reported some local residents were evacuating the town of Chaman. The situation remains tense and an escalation of the violence could occur with little to no warning.
- HEKMATYAR CONVENES PLANNING GROUP – After making provocative statements about an unknown threat to his followers, the warlord has reputedly called for a conference of his close associates (those with military experience) as well as close allies from the Soviet occupation days. It is not clear who he believes may be targeting him and whether he intends to launch some kind of operation. It is also not clear if the Taliban would sanction any such operation. He has often been at odds with the Taliban leadership and may represent a threat to their power.
- MODERATE EARTHQUAKE HITS SEVERAL PROVINCES – A 4.2 magnitude quake rattled Kabul and several other Provinces on Sunday morning. No casualties or damage has been reported.
- TAJIKISTAN QUIETLY INCREASES TROOP LEVELS ALONG AFGHAN BORDER – Local sources have noticed the addition of several hundred troops stationed along the Tajik border in recent days. The reinforcements began arriving shortly after the news was leaked that the perpetrators behind the thwarted attack on Hekmatyar’s political offices were Tajikistan nationals.
NEXT 24 HOURS
- THREAT OF VIOLENCE ALONG BORDER WILL REMAIN HIGH – Yesterday’s events at Spin Boldak-Chaman marked a significant escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Not since the air and artillery strikes that were carried out by Pakistan earlier this year has the threat of war been so high. There are several contributing factors that make further violent exchanges a dangerous proposition for regional peace:
- The continued construction on the Durand Line has incensed Afghanistan’s populace
- The assumption is that the TTP is using Afghanistan as a safe haven from which to launch attacks
- Pakistan’s dependence on Afghan coal to meet its domestic energy needs
- Political and economic turmoil in both countries
- Pakistan’s perceived cooperation with the United States
- POSSIBLE FOLLOW-ON-TERROR ATTACKS – Terror organizations often attempt to exploit the confusion and chaos created by cross-border disputes. With active terrorist organizations in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, one or both countries could see potential terror attacks in the coming days. At-risk Afghans should be cognizant of their surroundings and limit exposure:
- in public places where people gather
- near Taliban/Pakistani security checkpoints
- in places of worship and minority neighborhoods
- on public transportation
The worrisome part of this situation is that Kabul/Kandahar does not appear to have much control over local commanders and units. This has been demonstrated on several occasions and along more than one border. While it is possible the Taliban have empowered local commanders to act of their own volition, the way earlier cross-border incidents that have occurred seemed to indicate the actions taken by local commanders had not been sanctioned. A similar situation exists on the Western border with Iran, and Kabul is continually obliged to send delegations to smooth over incidents with their Iranian counterparts. At-risk Afghans are advised to continue monitoring the situation closely. If a border crossing must be undertaken, it is recommended to call ahead and verify the situation. Even if the current ruckus is de-escalated, the cross-border conflict looks as if it will be a problem well into the new year.