[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- FEMALE LED PROTESTS AGAINST UNIVERSITY BAN DISPERSED – Taliban security forces used another heavy-handed approach to breaking up the protests with beatings and some reports suggested vehicle-mounted water cannons were used to disperse crowds. Several arrests have been reported across the country. Condemnation against the policy has been nearly universal. Further protests are being planned and are expected to be met with violence. Several Pakistani and Indian news sites have quoted sources who say the Taliban leadership fears national protests on the scale of those in Iran and has quietly empowered local Taliban officials to put down protests swiftly.
- DOWRIES ILLEGAL IN HELMAND – Officials in the Province have stated that dowries are considered illegal and those caught either giving or receiving them will be referred for prosecution. It is believed that several other Provinces are weighing similar measures to do away with the practice. It is currently unknown if anyone has been charged at this time and what punishments might be in the offing for a conviction.
- REGIONAL ECONOMIC PROJECTS BEING RECONSIDERED – Several governments in the region who had been considering major commercial projects in the region have scheduled meetings over the next few weeks to reassess the plans in the wake of the ban on women’s University studies. A source in a country with a major project on the books has stated that the ban gives his country the ‘camouflage’ it needed to potentially back out of a deal. The source went on to say that sentiment among his country’s leaders had turned against the Taliban in its current form and that he wouldn’t be surprised to see several high-profile projects put on hold or canceled.
- PAKISTAN CRACKS DOWN ON US DOLLAR SMUGGLING TO AFGHANISTAN – Several shipments of US dollars that had been packed inside crates of oranges have been interdicted since Pakistani officials were made aware of the scope of the problem last month. A recent report commissioned by the government stated that over 100 seizures have been made, totaling $4.2 million dollars. It was not clear if all the seizures involved US currency or other foreign currencies. Law enforcement agencies have been instructed to stop the practice and a local source near Torkham Gate said that vehicle inspections have taken longer over the past month as a result.
NEXT 24 HOURS
RUMORS OF A COUP – Unverified reports have arrived that claim a coup may be underway in Kandahar. The unsubstantiated reports state that Mullah Yaqoub (Minister of Defense) and/or Sirajuddin Haqqani (Minister of the Interior) have or will attempt to oust the Supreme Leader and his group of advisors. Also, (reportedly) involved in the discussions were Mullah Baradar and Mullah Hasan Akhund. Apparently, the group has styled itself as the ‘moderate’ faction of the Taliban and feels compelled to take action after the stupendously inept edict barring women from attending Universities. There have been no reports of fighting and this information is not verified at this time. However, there is potential for either localized or widespread violence should such an action take place. Should inter-Taliban fighting begin, at-risk Afghans should immediately seek shelter and be prepared to stay in their homes. Coups are typically not protracted affairs, but we do not know how loyalties are divided among the Taliban at this point. It is also important to note that terrorist groups may seek to capitalize on the confusion and chaos of an internal dispute to launch potential attacks against religious or ethnic targets. Again, this information has yet to be verified and may simply be a rumor.
Daily Evacuation Brief | December 22, 2022
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- LATEST DECREE POLARIZES COUNTRY – While the Taliban have shown little interest in condemnation from the international community, it has consistently fretted over support from local leaders and 2022 saw several domestic missions by high-ranking Taliban leaders that were dispatched to the Provinces in order to quell potential resistance and assure local leaders of the IEA’s inviolability. However, many in Kabul say this latest move will put more pressure on local leaders than at any time previously and it could widen existing cracks.
- NRF SEES PLEDGES OF SUPPORT AFTER TALIBAN DECREE ON WOMEN – Sources in the Resistance say their ranks will swell with new recruits this Spring after many have become disillusioned with the Taliban 2.0. Sources claimed the recent announcement that bars women from attending Universities has prompted many new potential recruits to contact Resistance members and commit to joining the group for the Spring campaign season. While some of the predictions seem far-fetched, most analysts seem to agree that they could double the numbers in their ranks to approximately 6,000 and they will likely be able to form cells in Provinces across the country.
- POSSIBLE SECURITY THREAT IN MAZAR-I-SHARIF – Taliban security forces appear to be at an elevated security status in Mazar-i-Sharif. Taliban security vehicles were observed to be stationed across all districts of the city on Wednesday. Taliban security personnel have been congregating around the vehicles and the vehicles remained in their positions all day and into the night. It is not clear what threat may have prompted the deployment. Typically, Taliban vehicles congregate at the established checkpoints and conduct sporadic patrols throughout the city. The Taliban may be taking precautionary measures in anticipation of protests against the recent announcement regarding the ban on women attending Universities. We are attempting to verify that other cities across the country are seeing similar deployments.
- FORMER PRESIDENT KARZAI RETURNS TO KABUL – His return puts to rest several rumors which stated that he had planned on fleeing the country.
- THE SALANG PASS HAS REOPENED FOR SMALL VEHICLE TRAFFIC – Local officials are debating instituting new rules for commercial traffic that could involve inspections of safety equipment and/or establishing a schedule that would keep commercial traffic from traversing the tunnel while civilian traffic is present. A source with the emergency services who have been clearing the wreckage from the tunnel is concerned the tunnel was damaged from the intense heat and has requested a structural evaluation be completed prior to reopening but the advice appears to have been ignored by the Taliban.
NEXT 24 HOURS
TALIBAN DEPLOYMENT IN MAZAR-I-SHARIF — While there is no information concerning a possible threat, it is advisable to warn those at-risk Afghans in the city of the Taliban deployment and we recommend people remain indoors until the situation becomes clearer.
Daily Evacuation Brief | December 21, 2022
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
TTP LEADERSHIP WORKING OUT OF AFGHANISTAN – The confirmation that TTP terror operations are being directed from Pakistan has validated concerns voiced by regional leaders and some members of the international community who have continually claimed the leadership enjoyed protection from the Taliban. After the uprising in the Bannu detention facility, leaders from the Provincial government in Pakistan began negotiating with the TTP leadership in Afghanistan. The announcement places the Taliban in a difficult position with regard to continued denials by the regime about cross-border terrorism groups within their territory.