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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Where the war in Ukraine could be headed in 2023 |
| 2023-01-06 |
| [Responsible Statecraft] In the end, as in any war, the most important factor in the future course of the Ukraine conflict will be what happens on the battlefield. There are essentially three possibilities, though each of these would bring in its wake a range of potential consequences: a Ukrainian breakthrough; a Russian breakthrough; and a stalemate roughly along the present lines of military control. With Russian forces increasing in numbers and dug in along shorter front lines with massive artillery support, it will be a major challenge for the Ukrainian army to break through. Nonetheless, the Ukrainians have astonished the world so often since the Russian invasion began that further victories cannot be excluded. If Ukrainian troops were to break through to the Sea of Azov, isolating Crimea; or if they succeeded in recapturing a large part of the separatist eastern Donbas region that Russia has backed since 2014, then it seems likely that in response Russia would threaten, and possibly execute, some form of drastic escalation. This might begin with the symbolic bombardment (with conventional missiles) of NATO air bases or supply lines in Poland or Romania. In any event, the Kremlin’s intention would also be to raise the possibility of a slide towards nuclear war between Russia and the United States. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #2 #1Â Â What's a "symbolic bombardment" and what would be NATO's "symbolic" reply? Could be memes or Reddit/Roastme replies...the results are devastating |
| Posted by: Frank G 2023-01-06 19:42 |
| #1 What's a "symbolic bombardment" and what would be NATO's "symbolic" reply? |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2023-01-06 19:04 |