[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- TALIBAN LEADERS CLAIM TO HAVE KILLED 2 SENIOR ISIS LEADERS IN A SECURITY OPERATION IN KABUL – The Taliban announced they had killed 2 senior ISIS leaders in a recent Kabul security operation. Qari Fateh, the military leader of the terrorist group and one of the reputed masterminds of the attacks on diplomatic, religious, and other Taliban facilities. The identity of the other fatality has not been released. An ISIS-K leader appeared to have confirmed the losses in a social media post that has since been deleted.
- SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN REPORTED HOMICIDES OVER THE LAST TWELVE DAYS – Most of the murders that have been reported have not resulted in arrests. While all the victim’s identities are not known, at least 8 had served in the military under the former regime. The crimes are similar in that most of the bodies are discovered and dumped in areas of cities where low vehicle and pedestrian traffic occurs. Based on a sampling of several national news outlets, we assess that 32 murders have been reported over the last twelve days. All of the victims were males. In 19 of the cases, the victim’s bodies were dumped in the aforementioned manner. It is possible that a systematic program has been launched. Only 4 of the cases resulted in the apprehension of suspects and family members and friends say that no investigations are being actively pursued in the majority of the cases. It is possible that an official or, an organized crime plot is underway.
- TALIBAN SECURITY FORCES BRACE FOR SPRING VIOLENCE – As March arrives, sources say the Taliban are preparing for a renewed onslaught of fighting as Resistance groups may have chosen the month as the official launch of the Spring Campaign season. While intermittent attacks continued throughout the Winter, most were focused on limited objectives and did not escalate into major engagements.
The National Resistance Front (NRF), arguably the largest and most organized of the militia groups, was said to have actively recruited new fighters throughout the winter months and rumors of arms shipments and supply deliveries from ‘external partners’ have persisted. Other groups, such as the Afghanistan Liberation Movement (ALM) and the Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF), were also said to have rallied more fighters to their respective causes. It is not clear how many Resistance fighters are arrayed in opposition to the Taliban at this time. However, the spate of attacks that took place over the latter part of Winter leads us to believe that coordination between the groups is increasing.
For its part, the Taliban has adhered to a regular schedule of training new recruits. The recruits attend three months of training with a sizable portion dedicated to ‘religious studies’.
...at the end of which, the lads ae fondly known as cannon fodder.The total end-strength estimates of the Taliban Ministry of Defense vary widely with most analyses suggesting the number lies somewhere between 70,000 and 100,000.
There has been little change reported to the tactical disposition of the Taliban forces since the conclusion of hostilities in Panjshir at the end of 2022. The only significant troop displacements that occurred over the Winter were in response to Pakistani reinforcements along the Durand Line (Spin Boldak in particular) and the recent reinforcement of the border with Tajikistan. The Taliban made several announcements concerning the reconstitution of some air assets, but sources familiar with the program say that bench stocks of replacement parts are running low and the repair work has been executed to very low standards. Likewise, the Taliban’s vehicle fleets are beginning to eat through repair parts at an alarming rate and the losses from attrition and frequent wrecks have taken a heavy toll on available means of transportation. If 2023 proves to be as active as 2022 was, Taliban Commanders will be forced to improvise in order to move their forces around the country.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Takhar:: NRF fighters launched a night attack against the building housing the Taliban’s security forces command staff in Dasht Qala district. Four rockets were fired at the building. Some damage was reported, but no information on casualties.
NEXT 24 HOURS
HELMAND ROUNDUP TO CONTINUE – The searches for former ANDSF personnel in Helmand are expected to continue throughout the week. The Taliban have reports of three large arms caches in the Province and are concerned the weapons and ordinance will be moved soon and distributed among Resistance militias. It is thought that nearly 100 ANDSF personnel have been detained and interrogated to try and find the locations of the weapons, but these efforts have yet to produce results. At-risk Afghans residing in the Province should be aware of these search operations and former ANDSF personnel would be wise to consider leaving for a time.