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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia begins to change the geopolitical scenery in the Caucasus |
| 2023-03-01 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [REGNUM] Sergey Lavrov's visit to Baku can be considered a landmark, able to have a noticeable impact on the course of events in the region, an attempt to introduce something new in accordance with the current situation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a two-day official visit to Baku. He was received by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev , held talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov, took part in the plenary session of the Russian-Azerbaijani expert council and in the thematic conference "Russian-Azerbaijani relations in the 21st century: strategic partnership in the context of regional security." This is not the first time Lavrov has visited Baku and his agenda has always been very busy, since along with the consideration of bilateral relations, the problem of normalizing Azerbaijani-Armenian relations was necessarily touched upon in various aspects. So it was supposed to be this time. Announcing Lavrov's visit to Baku, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that "its details are being worked out and agreed with the Azerbaijani side and that we are talking about a set of bilateral issues, pressing regional and international problems, as well as the implementation of trilateral agreements between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia achieved after the second Karabakh war on November 9, 2020 and January 11, 2021." In this regard, many experts assumed that Lavrov in Baku would promote another proposal to organize a meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow in order to prepare a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan. Moreover, US State Department spokesman Ned Price announced Aliyev's upcoming meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels with the participation of European Council President Charles Michel. Earlier, such a meeting was held in Munich in the format of an international security conference, but with the participation of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Then the conflicting parties confirmed their desire to conclude a peace treaty. In addition, the Council of Europe established a civilian monitoring mission of the European Union with a two-year mandate in the regions of Armenia bordering Azerbaijan. This decision was negatively received in Moscow. Maria Zakharova stated that "the representatives of the European Union are cunning when talking about the civilian nature of the EU monitoring mission in Armenia" and that "this is not the first time we have recorded the desire of the European Union and the West as a whole to gain a foothold in our allied Armenia by any means, we see in these attempts an exclusively geopolitical background, far from the interests of real normalization of relations in Transcaucasia." But the measures of assistance offered to Yerevan by the CSTO were rejected by him. That is why, from the point of view of the declared protocol logic, Lavrov's current visit to Baku should have been no different from the previous ones, and the issues of "bilateral and regional cooperation, interaction in the international arena" should have been in second place. But the unexpected happened. Moscow has officially announced that Lavrov's visit to Baku is timed to coincide with the anniversary of the signing by Russia and Azerbaijan of the "Declaration on Allied Cooperation," which was signed in Moscow at the end of February last year - two days before the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. Then Azerbaijan, which is not a member of the CSTO, officially began to be called an ally of Russia. And not only this. Important statements were made at the meeting between Aliyev and Lavrov in Baku. The President of Azerbaijan expressed hope that "2023 will be a breakthrough year in the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia." "We are counting on it,” he said. At the same time, he expressed gratitude to the Russian government and personally to Lavrov "for their active participation in this process." "Documents were adopted that define the conceptual nature of the future peace treaty," Aliyev stressed. "It is the mutual recognition of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the two countries, which was confirmed by the documents adopted last October in Prague and Sochi, is the foundation that can be used to reach a peace treaty." Lavrov's response sounded sensational: "Russia welcomes any efforts of other states aimed at normalizing relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. We, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said, welcome all efforts that will proceed from the interests of stabilizing the situation and creating conditions for all the countries located here to have the opportunity to cooperate normally, on the basis of mutual respect, mutual benefit in the interests of their states and further." True, it is not entirely clear whether Moscow is abandoning the position of active political disavowal of the mediating efforts of the West in signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Just the day before, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, commenting on Egypt's initiative to mediate between Yerevan and Baku, also noted that "Russia welcomes any initiatives that can support efforts to normalize relations between Baku and Yerevan" , but pointed out that "the main thing is to avoid duplication and competition of ongoing mediation efforts." At a joint press conference with Bayramov in Baku, Lavrov clarified that "Russia will not insist on holding talks between Baku and Yerevan in Moscow," although it is ready to provide a platform for negotiations between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia. In turn, Bayramov noted that after Yerevan refused to participate in the meeting in Moscow, the element of face-to-face meetings falls out of the agreed format and Armenia switched to the so-called online diplomacy, sending its comments to the draft peace treaty. The fact is that Russia is beginning to change the geopolitical scenery in the Transcaucasus. It is moving from "horizontal diplomacy Moscow-Baku-Yerevan" to "vertical diplomacy Moscow-Baku" with the practical implementation of not only bilateral trade and economic projects, but also a wide North-South transport corridor. Currently, more than 150 international legal acts have been concluded between the two countries. A regular confidential dialogue is maintained at the highest levels. In 2022 alone, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev held 7 meetings and 12 telephone conversations. It seems that Moscow is ceasing to show heightened concern over the prospect of someone else intercepting the initiative in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, since it has serious grounds to assume that the moderation of other external forces in this direction is unlikely to be successful. Lavrov said in Baku that "Brussels is openly abusing its relations with Yerevan and Baku, pushing through the civilian mission on the territory of Armenia, which raises many questions in terms of its legitimacy, including in terms of its mandate, functions, duration and that “added value” that it can bring to the efforts to normalize relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan." At the same time, he added that this is still "the sovereign choice of the parties with whom to cooperate or not to cooperate," and “the Russian side in all its actions is guided by the principle of "do no harm." At the same time, there are no real progress in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan so far. Only words are heard and much remains outside the brackets. There are no accidents in big politics, and experts have yet to figure out why Moscow and Baku began to closely coordinate their steps in the region, solving new geopolitical problems. But it is already noticeable that Lavrov's visit to Baku can be considered a landmark, capable of exerting a noticeable influence on the course of events in the region, an attempt to introduce something new in accordance with the current situation. February 28, 2023 Stanislav Tarasov |
| Posted by:badanov |