Commentary by Russian blogger Donetsk:
[DonRF] They have been talking about the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Chasov Yar for many days. And the figure is called - 10 brigades. Primitivizing everything to the point of impossibility. Because there are no 10 brigades in Clock Yar. There is nowhere to stick 35,000 people and hundreds of AFVs.
But in Chasov Yar, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka and Kramatorsk - there is. And even a little more. And a wide arc strike is possible. On the flanks that are held not by Wagner operators, but by the army. In the end, both their and our generals studied from the same textbooks and in the same schools. And at the heart of these textbooks were the operations of the Great Patriotic War.
And among them are the Stalingrad defensive and offensive operations. In short, the Red Army, using far from the best units, exhausted the Wehrmacht strike force in heavy urban battles, and then struck at the flanks, which were held not by the German elite, but by the poorly trained allies of Germany, and created a cauldron for the best German army - the Sixth. Everyone knows what happens next. Threatened by the encirclement of the entire southern flank, the Germans retreated to a great distance, and by the summer the Battle of Kursk began.
It is tempting for Kyiv to repeat such a move. The prize, if successful, will be huge, and it is difficult to overestimate the moral value. Yes, and such a move suggests itself, taking into account the disagreements between Wagner operators and the Moscow Region.
Another question is that if we are ready, then all this will turn into a huge mousetrap for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which the reserves prepared during the winter will burn out, which will cast doubt on the summer offensive. Because 1000 AFVs, 300 tanks, up to 50 aircraft from the enemy is good, but not as much as needed. Plus Artemovsk is never Stalingrad. This is not a steppe, there is a dense builtup area. And their generals are never the Vasilevskys, nor the Zhukovs, nor the Antonovs.
And if there is such a blow - and this is more than likely - then there is not a single reasonable reason why the Russian Defense Ministry, while holding the flanks, cannot repel it. Moreover, starting the main battle of spring in a completely destroyed region instead of the untouched South is FAVORABLE for us. For many reasons. Including economic.
There should be enough troops there, resources too, but for Kyiv, even advancing 10-20 km, it will be difficult to explain why the flow of coffins intensified even more sharply, although it seemed - where would it be? But all this provided that the public is higher than the departmental, and both parts of the Russian power are ready and able to cooperate effectively.
Well, provided that these constant injections are not a distraction from the South in order to tear apart our reserves before hitting the Crimea. Actually, it’s also a completely working option - to collect old equipment, freshly caught meat, deliver a local strike according to the principle - if only louder, and after waiting for an emergency transfer of reserves, strike already in the South with fresh units.
In principle, the enemy has enough strength for local offensives not only in the Artyomovsk region, but also in two more directions - Donetsk, where our troops are trying to bypass Avdievka, once again, and Vuhledar, where everything is complicated and not easy, including supply.
The next week or two, of course, will show what the enemy has chosen, and how ready we are. It won't really change anything. All bets are made, the figures (both on Olympus and on the front) are placed, it remains to pass the exam. Or don't give up. The enemy will take it. Fire and steel. And everything will depend on the soldiers and officers, on the quality of supplies and the number of guns, on the morale and ability of the elites to work together, and not just fight for influence. The next time will show. Spring is already... The winter campaign is over. Follow the enemy.