Prefacing from Aleksandr Kots:
[KP] - Offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? It will definitely be, you can not even doubt it, - the familiar commander of the Russian unit "delighted" me from the threshold of his basement command post.
- After all, they, in fact, have a mobilization unlimited, they can afford it. Therefore, where we destroy a company, a new one immediately appears, - says my interlocutor.
"They have trained in the rear, there is a constant rotation at the forefront, a rare unit is staffed below 90 percent. Even technically. Let it be old armored personnel carriers and armored personnel carriers, BMP-1 and T-64, and even pickup trucks for evacuation, but there is what is required by the state. So far, the bulk of Western technology has not arrived. Under which, by the way, Ukraine forms up to 3 new shock corps (more on them later). This is how they should go on the offensive.
Unlike last year, when the enemy's offensive in the Kharkiv region became a revelation even for some military leaders, today everyone is aware of the threat posed by Kyiv. And the most dangerous directions are already clear.
Zaporozhye blitzkrieg, Svatovsky breakthrough, Mariupol adventure.
“Perhaps somewhere wedged for several kilometers,” says my friend officer.
- In this case, of course, they will suffer big losses. And the front, after the attackers run out of tanks and ammunition, will freeze for a while. There will be no further action. This, of course, will be a good window of opportunity for our counterattack on an exhausted enemy. If we promptly form several new armies, we will have every chance to unpleasantly surprise Ukraine and the West this year.
Kyiv is preparing an armored "shock fist" and promises the West to launch an "offensive" no later than May. Where can he try to break through our defenses and are our troops ready for this?
by Alexander Kots
Kyiv PUSHED
- Offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? It will definitely be, you can not even doubt it, - the familiar commander of the Russian unit "delighted" me from the threshold of his basement command post.
Commanding units from underground is the "trend of the season." What do we have, what does the enemy have. The presence of high-precision weapons makes adjustments to the academic standards of command and control. Communications are deployed here, control over the “sponsored” territory is also carried out from here - a picture from drones is displayed on large screens, their operators are right there with joysticks. Artillery strikes are corrected online. A few spotlights and spotlights, and one could mistake what is happening for the e-sports final. It's just that people really die here. And this does not seem to bother our opponents.
- After all, they, in fact, have a mobilization unlimited, they can afford it. Therefore, where we destroy a company, a new one immediately appears, - says my interlocutor. “They have trained in the rear, there is a constant rotation at the forefront, a rare unit is staffed below 90 percent. Even technically. Let it be old armored personnel carriers and armored personnel carriers, BMP-1 and T-64, and even pickup trucks for evacuation, but there is what is required by the state. So far, the bulk of Western technology has not arrived. Under which, by the way, Ukraine forms up to 3 new shock corps (more on them later). This is how they should go on the offensive.
Over the past couple of weeks, the Western media, which can be used to judge the mood in the political community of a potential enemy, have shown unusual volatility.
The Washington Post, for example, "cancelled" the Ukrainian offensive, reporting, citing an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and officials of the Independent, that Kyiv was not ready. Colossal losses, lack of experience among the junior commanders, a shabby officer corps... The American newspaper described the problems of Ukraine in such a way that it became clear that they would definitely go on the “offensive”.
And then Politico issues: "The United States is in a hurry to prepare Kyiv for the spring offensive." They say that the losses of Ukraine are losses (they are estimated in Washington at “more than 100,000 people”), and no later than mid-May it is necessary to go on the attack.
In vain, perhaps, by the second half of April, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should receive more than 1,000 armored vehicles, including about a hundred tanks, over 300 armored personnel carriers, 250 infantry fighting vehicles and under 400 armored vehicles. And this is just the beginning.
The rest, including 155mm NATO caliber ammunition, will come as Ukrainian allies can. About 800 tanks alone are promised, of which 250 are Western-made, and the rest are T-72s of various modifications. And if you consider that Kyiv "localized" the production of Soviet 82mm, 120mm, 122mm and 152mm ammunition "in one of the NATO countries", then it's time to sound the alarm.
However, unlike last year, when the enemy's offensive in the Kharkiv region became a revelation even for some military leaders, today everyone is aware of the threat posed by Kyiv. And the most dangerous directions are already clear.
Let's sort them out.
SCENARIO #1
ZAPORIZHIA BLITZ-CRIG
Our intelligence notes that in the last month Ukraine has been accumulating reserves in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions. Terodefense units, as well as newly formed brigades, are transferred here.
The most likely target of the upcoming counteroffensive is Melitopol. Remember, at the beginning of the year, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, in his epistolary “sheet” “On the Prospects of the Campaign of 2023”, designated the capture of Crimea as the main goal for this period. The task is, to put it mildly, ambitious. Russian troops, of course, will not allow him to even approach the peninsula.
But Zaluzhny would very much like to transfer to the Crimea at least remote combat operations (not ground attacks, but air strikes and long-range artillery strikes). First of all, to forge the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" as our main rear base on the Southern Front. So far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can inflict only minor damage on objects in the Crimea with the help of air and underwater drones. And the damage is more informational than military.
Kyiv, on the other hand, wants to be able to cover our headquarters, warehouses and barracks on the territory of the peninsula. Long-range high-precision missiles are only promised to Ukraine so far. And for the existing types of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, you need to come close to the Crimea, to the isthmuses.
Remember, at the beginning of the year, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, in his epistolary “sheet” “On the Prospects of the Campaign of 2023”, designated the capture of Crimea as the main goal for this period
And then we return to Melitopol. The city stands at a strategic road junction. From here you can move to Berdyansk - a port on the Sea of Azov, and towards Mariupol, and to Genichesk - where the road to Crimea is. And you can expand the bridgehead towards Kherson, cutting our grouping on the left bank of the Dnieper. It is no coincidence that over the past week the Armed Forces of Ukraine undertook two reconnaissance in force in the direction of the settlement of Pologi, from which there is a route to Tokmak and further to Melitopol, the temporary capital of Russian Zaporozhye.
If the enemy succeeds in Melitopol, our troops on the left bank of the Kherson region will have to retreat to Perekop so as not to be cut off from the corridor to the Crimea. Moreover, this road of life can quickly be under the fire control of the enemy. This means that our group will be under the threat of encirclement.
But, as they say, it was smooth on paper. Two extreme attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to arrange reconnaissance in force in the Zaporozhye direction ended in complete defeat. Dozens of dead, burned-out equipment, a reputation that fell below the muddy spring clay. Moreover, the Russian defense in this direction showed not only the ability to repel sudden attacks, but also a reckless desire to do so. Videos have appeared on the Web that show that our fighters have a taste for victories.
The Ukrainians will have to advance in the southern direction along the steppes. That is, open spaces. And if our troops have already coped with two company-tactical groups, then larger formations for artillery will all the more become a tasty target.
In addition, I myself saw how professional builders erected the most powerful defensive structures in all of the above areas - from concrete cone barriers and anti-tank ditches to a network of trenches and trenches with dugouts and cemented firing points. Passing them is not the same as entering a deserted city without a fight.
SCENARIO #2
SVATOVSKY BREAKTHROUGH
Another dangerous direction for the “offensive” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already received the unofficial name of the Svatovsky line.
This is the upper part of the Luhansk region, a line from north to south from Troitsky to Kremennaya with Svatovo in the middle. Last year, after the withdrawal of our troops from the Kharkov region and the abandonment of Kupyansk, it was precisely this city that the enemy aimed his main forces at.
In fact, it was possible to stabilize the front along this road only thanks to the arrival of reinforcements from among the mobilized. And since then, our troops are here in "active defense." The Ukrainians managed to push back from the highway in some areas up to several kilometers. Every day, our assault units capture more and more oporniks in the forests, slowly moving forward.
There are two factors behind our success here. On the one hand, this is the increased combat potential of the mobilized - the assault units consist mainly of those called up last fall. On the other hand, for political reasons, the enemy is still forced to transfer more reinforcements to the Artemovsky front than here. Including fresh prepared reserves.
But this does not mean that Kyiv abandoned its plans. After all, with a blow to Svatovo, he has the opportunity to move towards Starobelsk with a wide detour of Rubizhny. At the same time, a simultaneous strike from Kupyansk, and from Liman, and from Seversk (if it still remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by May) is not ruled out. And then the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration may be surrounded.
In principle, after the well-known events on the Kharkov front and the loss of Krasny Liman by us, the enemy pursued precisely this goal. This plan was thwarted only by the heroic efforts of our units, which survived then rather not thanks to, but in spite of. Today the situation is different. On the Svatovsky line and further, deep into the Luhansk People's Republic, the same layered defense was built as in the southern direction.
The initiative is now on the side of our military, who have learned to attack on the defensive. At the same time, the balance of forces here is now approximately one to one. The enemy is systematically probing our line of defense in search of weak points and so far has not found them. However, in the case of the transfer of reserves with new brigades equipped with Western equipment, it will be difficult. Much will depend on the work of our artillery. And that means from our military industry, which should provide the Gods of War with ammunition.
SCENARIO #3
MARIUPOL ADVENTURE
In Kyiv, there are conditionally two camps of hawks - military and political. According to the Artyomovskaya meat grinder, we see that here the decision is made by the political wing headed by Zelensky. In general, his PR goals often diverge from strategic expediency. The military, instead of recklessly destroying its reserves in the doomed city, would withdraw units to the next line of defense. As the Russian command did in the autumn, having taken a bitter but necessary decision to withdraw the group from the right bank of the Dnieper.
Today, another political decision is being discussed in Kyiv, and Vladimir Putin's visit to Mariupol will surely add supporters to him (the decision). This is an attack from the Zaporizhia and Dnepropetrovsk directions - through Ugledar and Volnovakha - to Mariupol. From an information point of view, the idea is almost a win-win. If you do not think about how to explain the next Azovstal later. But one must be prepared for such suicidal attacks.
ALL INDEPENDENT ARMY
What forces will Ukraine attack? It is known that now, at the expense of Western equipment and weapons, three shock corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, six brigades each, are being formed. The mechanized brigade is 4,500 to 5,500 bayonets. With simple mathematical calculations, we get up to 100,000 people.
Of course, not all of them will come. These reserve corps include air defense, communications, support, medicine... Excluding those who will not go into the forward formations, we get 20,000 people in each corps. By the way, in his "treatise" Zaluzhny wrote that he needed just 60 thousand people to capture the Crimea.
And the assault corps will become an armored fist supported by high-precision artillery and strike drones, designed to make a hole in our defenses, into which the main forces should pour in, expanding the bridgehead.
In total, Kyiv has about 600,000 people under arms today. Ukraine can afford to keep a serious reserve in the rear, which means that there is a possibility of an offensive in two directions at once - the South and the East. Depending on the success of any of them, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will most likely transfer reinforcements exactly there, trying to develop the victory.
"According to my feelings, they will not be able to catastrophically break through our defenses," my friend combat officer believes. - Perhaps somewhere wedged for several kilometers, but no more. In this case, of course, they will suffer big losses. And the front, after the attackers run out of tanks and ammunition, will freeze for a while. There will be no further action. This, of course, will be a good window of opportunity for our counterattack on an exhausted enemy. If we promptly form several new armies, we will have every chance to unpleasantly surprise Ukraine and the West this year.