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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- | |
| March 12, 2023-The World Dodged a Near Human-Extinction Carrington Event- Scary And True | |
| 2023-03-24 | |
A Powerful Solar Eruption on Far Side of Sun Still Impacted Earth. This was a replay of the Carrington event of September 1, 1859: Suddenly, [British astronomer Richard Christian] Carrington spotted what he described as “two patches of intensely bright and white light” erupting from the sunspots. Five minutes later the fireballs vanished, but within hours their impact would be felt across the globe. What happened on March 12 was similar to the 1859 outburst – only worse. Early estimates suggest that this explosion was ten to a hundred times more powerful than the one of 1859. Such events – if not quite so extreme -- are not uncommon. One serious difference from 1859 was that explosion took place on the side of the sun facing away from earth. If it had been facing in our direction, if the earth had borne the full brunt of that blast, we can scarcely imagine the results. It’s likely that all operating electrical systems would have been immediately destroyed, the same as the telegraph systems in 1859. Any active electronic instruments – and possibly even those that happened to be shut down – would have been fried, transformed into useless hunks of plastic, metal, and silicon. The electrical and electronic networks (e.g., the Net) that form the framework of Third Millennial civilization would have been annihilated. Once they were destroyed, all power would vanish. Industry would grind to a halt. Massive amounts of data, including almost all financial data, would simply disappear. All methods of communication beyond voice range would no longer exist. It wouldn’t be a matter of waiting to be rescued by a government of any sort. Government would have shrunk to little more than a notion. The very tools on which relief, and even recovery, depend would simply have vanished. The consequences beggar the imagination. A new Dark Age would have been the best option to expect. The event did have some effects. Spectacular auroras were seen much farther south than usual. For some hours, radio transmission was down above the Arctic Circle globally. Oddly enough, AT itself may well have been affected. That Sunday night I was on duty, as I usually am, and was just shutting things down when the wave front of this thing struck earth a little after 11:30. My PC immediately slowed down, and certain functions started acting iffy. While putting in the final article graphics, I soon learned that they wouldn’t insert, and that the entire graphics system was useless. After a little work I came up with a plausible hack that I thought would cover things – only to learn the next day that the server was down and not loading any scheduled material. It took AT’s excellent tech team several hours to straighten this out. Events like this are valuable in that they lend perspective. One of the major flaws of conservatism is its defeatism. If leftism is apocalyptic, conservatism is chiliastic, always eager for that eschatological moment of doom and judgment. It doesn’t matter what it is – China, Soros, fentanyl, the cartels, CRT, transgenderism – every time a cat falls from a tree, a mob suddenly pops out of hyperspace ready equipped with sackcloth and ashes. The Last Day is always dawning, the seals ever breaking open. There’s an entire school of paleoconservative thought devoted to utter defeatism calling itself the “Remnant,” but more on that at another time. There are always several doomsdays-of-the-moment making the rounds. A recent example has been a revival of WW III due to the war in Ukraine, that events will at any moment escalate until the siloes open up and the missiles start flying. Well… I have my doubts. If I were Vlad Putin and had spent the last year watching my much-vaunted tanks, fighter-bombers, and Hind gunships falling apart on the front lines, I’d think twice about calling out my far more complex strategic missiles. Similarly, people – very informed people, scientists of the first rank – had been predicting a return of the Carrington event for fifty years or more, as long as it has been understood what had actually happened. They didn’t know when it was coming; a century, maybe, or a century and a half (my sympathies to those who insisted that it would be 500 years). And they were right – it did come. But not in the manner expected. Because of a very simple aspect of celestial mechanics – the rotation of the sun – all that energy blew off into empty space, and humanity did not go the way of the dinosaurs. The moral is, as a wise man once pointed out, “If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure nine will run into a ditch before they get to you.” And what about our poor sun, victimized by its very nature? To my understanding, this event just past resets the clock. We should have little to worry about for another century or so. But on the other hand, we know so little about solar dynamics – astrophysicists are very unclear about what the precise cause of CMEs is, for one thing – that we can’t be certain. We do know that we have two more years before the current solar cycle tops out, and so far, this has been one of the most intense on record. So take some time to reflect on the bullet that we just dodged, and give thanks that we’re not right this minute battling amid the dark ruins for the last can of baked beans. Life can be terrible, cruel, and harsh, but it also can be none of those things. | |
| Posted by:NoMoreBS |
| #9 IIRC B posted this a while ago. Download for your own use. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2023-03-24 18:26 |
| #8 There was a kinda fun thought story floating around there for a bit. Something like: Back in ancient times, an electronic technology had enslaved humans. One day, there was a sunburst, and soon after all the electronic technology quit working and humans were free. Henceforth, humans in various ways worshiped the sun. Nowadays though, I'm afraid NoMoreBS is correct but I'd go so far as not just Western Civ but the world after all things sort out. If its been a while, or know someone who hasn't seen it - especially youngsters: Connections Episode 1: The Trigger Effect |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2023-03-24 16:56 |
| #7 #5 I didn't say it wouldn't have impacts, just not to the extinction level. The Amish would be among the least hit. Third world countries across the globe would weather it far better as they far less to fall. Electronic stock materials that is not fully assembled will likely not to be as radically effected. Your military has EMP proofed stock that has been rigorously tested which offers a limited but functional backup infrastructure. As far as social resilience, adaptivity to the new environment will determine who survives. The Greenies will get their darkest wish, though I suspect a lot of them will not be among the survivors 5+ years later. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2023-03-24 16:55 |
| #6 This EME was not like a jet directed at a point but more like a 180 degree big explosion I'm not sure it would have done the damage people are asserting |
| Posted by: lord garth 2023-03-24 15:49 |
| #5 ref #2 P2K The pre-electrical infrastructure of horses, water-powered milling and manual coal mining does not exist in scale. 85-90 of western civilization has none of the requisite skills to recommence farming and steam energy before famine wiped them out. The articles suggested literally every electrical device used in modern life, every pump, every motor, every computer, every farm implement that operated on any form of electricity would be fried. Consider the impact and disaster in the first week. That is what prompted the description of near extinction event. |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2023-03-24 12:30 |
| #4 What SPF level would I have needed to survive? Would I have had to go full Tammy Fae Baker? |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2023-03-24 12:27 |
| #3 I can it now.. DC to budget 💲💲💰💰💸💸💸 Billions to study the sun works and how to prevent such an event from happening again. Adam Shiftless as director & Hunter Biden to headup the Accounting Dept. |
| Posted by: NN2N1 2023-03-24 09:56 |
| #2 Near Human-Extinction Put that up there with the man made global warming apocalypse. Somehow the species survived without electrical energy for several millennium. We'd be back to the 19th century. Remember trains were operating well before the 'electric' revolution. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2023-03-24 08:06 |
| #1 Oh, dammit! |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2023-03-24 08:05 |