| Submit your comments on this article |
| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Iran is negotiating behind the scenes with Europe: there is no sensation, but there is intrigue |
| 2023-03-24 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [REGNUM] Tehran continues its game by entering into separate negotiations with European countries on a "nuclear deal". Americans, Chinese and Russians were not invited to the conversation, but the Russian Foreign Ministry assures that everything is under control. Following the talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a joint statement was adopted, which stated that the parties "stand for the speedy resumption of the full and effective implementation of the Agreement on the Iranian Nuclear Program" (JCPOA), call for a return to the implementation of Security Council Resolution 2231 The UN dedicated to this agreement, and also asked all " interested parties to take steps that would achieve a positive result in the framework of the negotiations on this agreement." After the announcement was made public, Iran made an intriguing move. The Iranian Mehr News Agency, citing its sources, reported that a week ago, a closed meeting was held in Oslo between Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and representatives of the Foreign Ministries of Great Britain, France and Germany. It is reported that the meeting was attended by the Deputy Head of the EU Foreign Service Enrique Mora. At the same time, US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley , as well as negotiators from Russia and China, were not present at the meeting in Oslo. This information was also confirmed by other Iranian sources "familiar with the recent interaction between Iranian and European diplomats." They contend that "brainstorming was undertaken" during the talks , although "stumbling blocks remain between the parties." However, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing European diplomats, they believe that "there is still a chance and time to save the JCPOA." But other details of the meeting are not reported. In general, meetings of this format are rare in Norway, although this is not the first time that a Scandinavian country that is not a member of the EU actually acts as a platform for mediation negotiations between Europe and Iran. According to Amwaj. media, a few months ago there were already "second path" talks in Oslo to " find a way forward on the JCPOA." Judging by the signs, the European members of the "six" proposed to the Iranian side some kind of their own draft agreement, without holding, as before, consultations with Washington and bypassing Russia and China. Therefore, given that Tehran, through the mediation of some Arab countries, is already conducting closed negotiations with the United States, one gets the feeling that Iran is working according to different scenarios: with the Americans - separately, with the Europeans - separately. However, commenting on the situation, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that "there is nothing surprising that Iran is in dialogue with Western countries on a nuclear deal" and that we are fully in the process, but no one interferes with interested countries within the framework of the format, which they find more convenient for themselves to discuss these things." According to him, "we are discussing a lot with both Iran and China, and we will continue to do this" and "there is nothing here that would turn normal, calm diplomatic processes into sensations." There really is no sensation. There is something else that creates a sharp intrigue. First. The talks in Oslo recreate the model of the negotiation process on the Iranian nuclear program of the 2003 model, consisting of the UK, Germany and France. Then, in 2005, this format expanded to the "six," when it included the United States, Russia and China. But after European diplomacy was integrated into the wake of Washington's policy, the negotiations of the "six" turned out to be unstable, and now they are simply disrupted. Until now, the Americans have not made a single significant public step towards Iran. Recall that in Vienna, with the mediation of the UK, Germany, China, France, Russia and the EU, several rounds of indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington on the conditions for the restoration of the JCPOA were held. However, a pause was taken in the negotiations, which has dragged on until now. Second. Today we observe in the relations between the great nuclear powers the lack of strategic stability and chaos in the system of international relations. The "Six" began to sag in the air, and the communication network of intermediaries in this format was disassembled into groups. Of course, following the logic of Ryabkov, there is still an exchange of views and maintaining contacts using the parties almost the methods of crisis diplomacy. At the same time, it is the United States that stimulates closed diplomacy through the mediation of some Arab countries, and the members of the Six, at least at the public level, avoid coordinated positions. It is possible that in the current situation Iran is maneuvering, trying to achieve a rapprochement of negotiating positions with Great Britain, France and Germany, to tear them away from the United States. But the question of whether the European members of the Six will risk pursuing an independent policy that runs counter to Washington's line remains open. Thus, the Americans are proposing to conclude some kind of temporary bilateral interim agreement on the JCPOA. But Tehran, as Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani says, rejects such a scenario, accepting only the option of returning all parties to the JCPOA, which is supported by Russia and China. It is also obvious that negotiations are needed within the "six" itself, primarily between Washington, Moscow and Beijing, which, for obvious reasons, is now proving difficult. But be that as it may, Iran needs negotiations on a nuclear program even in the "Oslo format." After the decision to restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, he actively moved towards normalizing relations with the Arab world, and is preparing to hold a summit with members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf by the end of the year. The goal is to prevent the United States, as in Ukraine, from gaining a foothold in the territories adjacent to Iran and acting by proxy. In such a situation, it is important for Tehran to demonstrate readiness for a dialogue on the nuclear program in any format in order to indicate the prospect for a peaceful solution to the crisis. We are talking about the implementation of the "Lavrov plan," a step-by-step approach to solving the problem, which can be interpreted as follows: move forward, breaking the problem into stages, while stipulating mutual actions and possible concessions at each of them. According to the Lavrov plan, the international community will have to respond to Iran's compliance with the IAEA requirements by freezing and then lifting the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. Moreover, Russia does not reject the previous proposals of the "six" addressed to Tehran. Iran is a sophisticated player; he sees that Europe is also playing its own game, its mediation is far from neutrality. But she is afraid of completely losing Iran, seeing that the United States fails to impose its own rules of the game on it, which is why Europe wants to change the course of events to a convenient option for itself. The decisive factor here may not be the efforts of mediators, even the most skillful ones, but the involvement of interested parties in the process. But the fact is that Tehran is trying to seize the initiative and separate the United States and Europe in the "six" on different sides. This is now the "neuralgic knot" of the entire Iranian problem. Further, much will depend both on the nature of Tehran's further relations with Washington (more precisely, relations between the US-Israel tandem, which has been weakening lately, with Iran), and on the balance of power in the China-US-Russia triangle. If Tehran manages to win over the EU, this will mean a breakthrough in the negotiations. Now it remains to wait for information about whether the negotiation process will get off the ground after Oslo and whether the European countries are ready to reckon with the basic interests of Iran. |
| Posted by:badanov |