[REGNUM] Former US President Donald Trump promised to resolve the Ukrainian conflict in 24 hours through “very simple negotiations” in the event of revenge in the battle for the White House. Trump, as expected, laid the blame for the start of the conflict on Joe Biden, and the whole speech, of course, was part of the election rhetoric. But the question remains: is there any more or less well-thought-out plan behind Trump's loud promise? If so, what would be the first condition for its execution?
"The conflict in Ukraine must end right now," - such a statement was made by the former head of the White House Donald Trump in an interview with Fox News . The 45th President of the United States promised that he was ready to solve the Ukrainian crisis in 24 hours during "very simple negotiations" with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine. What specifically the American president intends to negotiate with Vladimir Putin and what concessions his administration will make, Trump preferred to remain silent, because, they say, if you tell in advance, then nothing will work.
“I am the only president in decades who has not started a new war, and I will prevent a third world war,” Trump said. The ex-president used the topic of the Ukrainian conflict to attack the current owner of the White House. According to Trump, the hostilities would not have started at all if he had stayed in 2020 for a second term in power; the conflict flared up through the fault of Joe Biden. “The former Supreme Commander has also repeatedly stated that he “gets along very well with Putin,” commented the New York Post, a conservative tabloid close to the Republican Party.
Now, the former US president emphasizes , Ukraine risks being destroyed within a year and a half if the crisis cannot be extinguished. After all, Biden's policies could lead "to a global catastrophe, in comparison with which the First and Second World Wars are just flowers," Trump warned.
The US presidential election will be held, recall, in 2024, but the election campaign began last year. In January 2022, Biden made it clear that he was counting on a second term, and in November, Trump announced his intention to run again.
The current statements of the ex-president, of course, were elements of an election strategy. But, interpreting Trump’s words, the expert community disagreed on whether to consider the statement of readiness to “solve the Ukrainian problem in 24 hours” as nothing more than a rhetorical move, or whether the Trump team can (or at least wants to) propose some kind of action plan.
"Of course Trump is always Trump. And something, but he knows how to brag," said American expert Dmitry Drobnitsky in a commentary to REGNUM news agency . "But at the same time, the general outline of the thought of that part of the Republican elites who stand behind Trump is quite understandable. They have a plan, and it is clearly presented: "We are leaving Europe - this place remains poisoned for us, as it was under the Founding Fathers," according to the political scientist,
“Trump’s plan, in case he manages to return to the White House, is to immediately remove Vladimir Zelensky.”
“Because he is a creature of those people who do not like Trump and all those people who stand behind Trump. Support for the Kyiv regime will end on the same day. And what kind of war after that? Drobnitsky believes.
Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine during Trump's tenure in the White House. But in recent years, the current head of the Kyiv regime has been associated with the Democratic Party. During the US presidential campaign, Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleksandr Dubinsky (then a member of the pro-presidential Servant of the People faction) made a statement about corrupt ties between Ukrainian officials and the Democratic Party.
Zelensky apparently did not go along with Trump's insistence (reported by The Wall Street Journal ) to help lawyer Rudy Giuliani investigate Hunter Biden's corruption . Finally, it was precisely the pressure that Trump allegedly exerted on Zelensky in the summer of 2019 in order to persuade Kiev to participate in the investigation of the Biden Jr. case that became the formal reason for the impeachment attempt organized by the Democrats in Congress in the fall of that year.
It is quite plausible that the 45th president could sacrifice Zelensky if he returns, Drobnitsky concludes. He believes that in exchange for the dismantling of the current Kyiv regime, Trump hopes to receive “some guarantees from Russia” – perhaps there will be territorial concessions. The latter does not come as a big surprise, given Trump's recent statement about his willingness to accept that "certain Russian-speaking areas" come under Russian control.
Moreover, the former president admitted that he does not consider the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation to be in the national strategic interests of the United States, especially since "both sides are tired and ready to make a deal." According to Trump, the conflict in Ukraine is a problem for Europe, which, however, “does not help itself”, but instead “uses” the Americans.
“Trump’s logic is this: “The Ukraine that Biden came up with and because of which I almost got impeached will not happen,” Drobnitsky is convinced. "There will be no NATO support, and without it there will be no European assistance. And the cessation of support means the collapse of the front. Straightaway! And Trump will publicize the concessions received from Moscow and will most likely conclude some kind of trade agreement with the Russian Federation in order to sell something American to it. Trump wouldn't be himself if he didn't. And after that, he will announce his victory.”
However, Drobnitsky drew attention to the fact that the success of Trump's undertakings will depend on how hard the Republicans can "strangle the liberals" if they manage to return to power.
"The whole problem with Trump was that he thought that since he is the president and he has a majority in Congress, he will do everything. But it turned out that the “deep state” began to fight with him even before he managed to enter the White House," the interlocutor urged not to forget.
More skeptical about Trump's prospects in the field of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was assessed by another American political scientist, Malek Dudakov. The words of the former head of the White House are mostly political demagogy, which is voiced by Trump not for the first time.
“Of course, everyone is well aware that this is impossible and unrealistic. This is understood in the USA, in Russia and in Ukraine, Dudakov told REGNUM news agency.
"But Trump is trying to position himself as a peacemaker and is working to give at least some answer to the American public, which is really starting to get tired of the Ukrainian crisis. And Trump is betting that the weariness will increase and for him the position of a peacekeeping presidential candidate will be a winning one in the 2024 elections."
As for Ukraine itself, according to Dudakov, this is not a priority issue for Trump. And on the part of the Republican president, an attempt will follow to negotiate with Russia on the division of Ukraine.
"However, most likely, the conditions that Trump will offer will be unacceptable for Russia. But a lot will depend on the situation on the battlefield, at the front, and whether Russia will have the opportunity to agree or disagree on the conditions that Trump will put. For example, we can talk about the withdrawal of troops to the borders on February 23, 2022, Dudakov said. “ In any case, Trump will be more active in trying to negotiate than Biden."
March 28, 2023
Ivan Zhurenkov